Thursday:

SEE: Comments of ENSO today at Bottom.

 

A stable dry northwest flow across the eastern sierra will continue the trend of sunny days and cool nights. High temps will warm a few degrees between Labor Day and Wednesday.  Zephyr winds will range between 10 and 20 MPH. After mid-week, a weak broad trof will provide some cooling…..down to more seasonal levels with highs in Mammoth returning to the low 70s.  This is in comparison to the next two days with highs near 80. Nights now in the 40s will trend down into the 30s later this week…..

With the night times now longer, and our air mass quite dry, there will be a longer period of radiational cooling, enough for lows in some areas to get well down into the 30s. A north/south surface gradient will develop by Mid week and produce about 5 degrees of cooling by Thursday. Thereafter….a light NNE surface gradient will remain through next Sunday.

This looks like an excellent week for back country travel……………………

It will be a dry 5 to 7 day period ahead……

Interseasonal  

The CFS has been back peddling on the idea of significant precipitation mid-month.  Now is trending with some precip in mind more toward the equinox. There is still a lot of warmer than normal SST’s off the coast of Baja and the Sea of Cortez is very warm. A TS coming up any ware in that area would hold together long enough to bring heavy rain to Southern CA and especially AZ.

ENSO:   El Nino has yet to develop……with out it there will be little bias ENSO wise toward a wet winter from the warm side of the sign.

Of note there is still a moderate Kelvin Wave headed east that has yet to really surface….so we still have hope…..

As far as winter predictions…..the Old Farmers Almanac is out….Which in my opinion is pretty worthless to me.  It is calling for below normal snowfall for the Sierra.

So get ready for a very snowy winter?  😉

I think that the CFS system will have a better handle on things as we get well into October.  After all….If we are really going to have an ENSO that will support more of a bias to wet for California, it will show up by mid to late October. And if there is no bias from ENSO, other teleconnection’s would have to be relied upon.   I will have more on the latest teleconnection data later this week…..like the strength of the PDO and QBO…….

 

Update On ENSO:

The Dweebs had a look at the latest Kelvin Wave link for the latest subsurface SST information. It looks “IMPRESSIVE” from the perspective of reenergizing the Nino Basin with heat this Fall. FYI, In the core of that current Kelvin Wave is a small  +4C isotherm.  That wave is now beginning to surface and in fact the NINO 4 and 3.4 region has warmed “close to” + .5C warmer then normal. It will warm further this fall…

The CFS shows the Nino 3.4 region warming to +1C by January/February.  However, the Nino 1+2 and 3 are actually a bit cooler through that period, giving way to a possible Modoki Event.  Although this is encouraging for Southern CA, the Dweebs would be concerned for the inland areas of Central CA, if a true modoki event developed like in 1976-77….. as there could be significant split flow action  if the subtropical jet was well south of Southern CA.  Of course this is all chatter…..However, it would be much easier to forecast a wet winter for CA if all of the Nino Basin was +1.5C to +2C. for this Fall and Winter.

 

 

 

Dr Howard  and the Dweebs……………………………….:-)