Mammoth Weather Outlook

A beautiful weekend for the high country with low 70s at resort levels expected…..

With the upper jet pushing back up in the the pacific NW and moderate 500mb height rises currently occurring over CA , Mammoth Lakes high temps will climb into the low 70s this weekend with overnight lows in the upper 30 and low 40s. It will be a great weekend for all outdoor activities, especially with the absence of any significant wind.  Little change in the weather is expected other than some cloudiness this Sunday/Ngt.   The next significant change will bring mainly high clouds, (Wave Clouds) to our area next Thursday and Friday along with Moderate to strong Winds. It this point, some ensemble members are showing a slight chance of showers……Update later.

 

Climo:

There are some hints of the Continental high developing for the first time this year, as early as the end of this month but more likely by mid June.  Although Father’s Day is climatically the last freeze in the Mammoth area, this year it may come a bit earlier….

The 90 day outlook for the Summer Months of June July and August suggests a more active Monsoon season over AZ with above normal rainfall. Southern NV may be included somewhat, as well as the Southern and South Central Sierra according to the EURO seasonal forecasts….

 

ENSO;

The latest information from the CPC is that odds are good the La Niña conditions will continue through the Summer and to a lesser degree through the Fall.  With that said, as we move beyond the Spring barrier for ENSO forecasting, there is beginning to show up a bias toward ENSO neutral conditions by January 2023. See graphic below

If and this is a big if, ENSO neutral conditions develop during Jan, Feb and March, that may turn the pattern in the west, wet at some point, as the incidences of AR’s tend to increase when the MJO is in favorable phase space 7/8 during ENSO 3.4 region SSTAS are between -.5C and +.5C

There is likely to be some strong hints if we are moving toward ENSO Neutral conditions as there would be increasing MJO activity along with Kelvin wave action pushing warmer waters underneath the surface through the Central Pacific this Summer and or Fall.

Here is the latest Update from the IRI/CPC a few days ago.  https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Although La Nina is favored, the graphics from both IRI and the CFSv2 suggest the possibility of ENSO becoming Neutral by years end.

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)

It’s the year of the NW Jet…..Another strong NW jet will buffet the Sierra this weekend…..

Not much to say about this next ugly NW Jet but nasty.  The Dweebs cannot wait for the ENSO region to warm up!

This weekend will be increasing windy with strongest winds developing Saturday afternoon through Sunday.   40 to 50mph plus is expected in town. Temps will cool to the low 40s for highs early next week with light snowfall. Overnight lows in the low 20s expected. In the meantime expect a cooling trend with highs in the upper 60s Friday….Cooling 10 degrees each day.  Wind advisories Saturday and Sunday….  Oh yea…expect a few inches of nuisance snowfall, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

The Dweeber….

Gusty Winds Thursday will give way to a great Fishing Opener Saturday and Sunday….Breezy weather to return Monday and Tuesday before a nice warm Cinco De Mayo…Cooler Breezy WX follows Thursday and Friday…..

Its a cooler day today as a rather large but benign upper trof pushes through the region.  High temps are running some 5 to 7 degrees cooler today than Wednesday with highs in the upper 40s.  A few gusts to 55mph around noon today were noteworthy.  This fast moving trof will pass off into the Rockies tonight with a fair weather ridge upon us Friday. Expect a jump of 8 to 10 degrees of warmth tomorrow.  Another weak system will bring a little north breeze Friday, then light west breezes 5 to 15mph are expected Saturday for the Fishing Opener, and Sunday morning with afternoon west gusts to 25 mph possible both days.  Expect high temps this weekend in the upper 50s in Mammoth with mid 60s in the Crowley Lake area.  Lows this weekend will be in the upper 20s at lake level at dawn.

Next week shows another trof affecting our area with breezy weather returning. However, strong gusts like today are not expected for early next week.  Expect a nice warm Cinco De Mayo…Then get ready for the possibility of another wind machine Thursday  May 6th with wave clouds and breezy into Friday the 7th.  Hoping for a nice following Sunday for Mom!  🙂

Adios…

 

The Dweeber………………..:-)