I hear the folks down in the Owens valley are really enjoying the comfort of the below normal temperatures this Summer. With another day of mid to upper 80s today it should be delightful! Expect slightly warmer temps on Saturday. The high country is a different story….comments like where is our Summer? are more common then not. We welcome warmer then normal temps after a long chilly winter. Temps in Mammoth have been in the upper 60s with highs again today Friday expected in the mid to upper 60s. Lows in some areas in the 30s. There were a few showers that developed near the Yosemite area yesterday afternoon. This was due in part to the upper jet forcing lift over the area. Another day like that today will give the area a slight chance of some thunder in some isolated areas. It is unlikely that Mammoth will experience rainfall.

Some temperature records were broken in the southern San Joaquin Valley yesterday. Bakersfield at 88 degrees broke a high-low maxim temperature of 90 set back in 1966.  This had been the coolest high Max Min For July. 

The weather pattern for the next week will be highlighted by the struggle of the Eastern Pacific Trof and the upper ridge over the mid section of the country. The stationary upper level trof extends SSW from Alberta Canada to off the Southern Ca coast.  A strong upper high over the Oklahoma will become Monsterious the early next week and will build northward in the coming days. Our upper trof off shore continues to feed in cool dry air through Mammoth Pass and favor stronger zephyr winds. With little movement expected the next couple of days little change is expected in our weather.

The next change in the pattern happens as the upper high over the central CONUS strengthens Sunday and expands westward into next week. The big question today is will this ridge be strong enough to dislodge the west coast trof and to provide a warm up for the far west into next week. At the moment the forecast is taking that into consideration and providing up to 10 degrees of warming early next week for the Eastern Sierra. High temps are expected to be back into the mid to upper 70s Monday through Wednesday.  It should be noted that the global circulation is still in La Nina mode and with a negative PDO and all the anomalously cold water over the Eastern pacific reinforcing the current trof, there is some question on high heights will get over the far west and thus how warm it will get.


Long Range:

The long range week 2 still teases us with a return of the 4 corners upper high by month end and some monsoon moisture returning. The Dweebs have doubts about this and will play a wait and see.  Again, La Nina at the moment may not be in the cards SSTA wise in the Nina 3.4 region, however the subsurface SSTA pool that warmed during the spring is now cooling and it probably will not be long before La Nina returns, not only in the current Global Circulation but manifested out over the ENSO 1 to 4 areas during the Fall. La Nina will possibly rule the Winter of 2011/2012 again in some fashion!


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)

  
  

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.