3:00pm Update:


“WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM
PST SUNDAY”


Forecast Snowfall Forecast still good:

3 to 6 inches in town with 6  to 12 inches over Mammoth Mountain

Snow to begin falling about late Morning….


Good Morning Everyone…

This mornings 12z model runs showed good agreement with the next
west coast trof coming into the Great Basin early Sunday morning. There after…..building
eastern pacific heights behind this trof will move into the west coast Monday and Tuesday,
for a stretch of fair mountain weather and set off a Santana event for Southern California Monday- Tuesday. Thereafter….the upper flow allows for a couple of fast moving short waves Thursday and Friday that allow for some snow showers here in the high country. However the main effect of this pattern will be breezy weather locally and windy conditions for the crest. Differences show up in the longer range with the ECMWF fairly consistent with another deep west coast trof for next weekend, while the GFS has a much weaker system.

Back to the shorter range, the new model runs are coming in a bit dryer again with the Saturday/night storm for the high country. CRFC has backed off on their QPF from about an inch and a quarter near Yosemite to .88 storm total by Sunday morning.   Based upon this and the new dryer run of the NAM/WRF…the Dweebs believe that some 3 to 6 inches are in order for the Town of Mammoth and some 6 to 12 inches for Mammoth Mountain. This was the earlier thinking on Wednesday.

Snow will begin falling about mid morning Saturday with the main snowfall later Saturday afternoon through Saturday night through 10:00pm, then should decrease rapidly Sunday morning.  Winter Weather Advisories will be in order for slick roads and gusty winds Saturday night. There should be no winter travel problems except for snow covered roads leaving Mammoth Sunday afternoon.

Expect highs today Friday in the mid 40s in town with lows tonight in the 20s. Cooler weather will arrive both Saturday and Sunday with highs Saturday in the mid 30s cooling to the mid to upper 20s on Sunday. *Freezing levels will fall from 9800 to 4200 by Sunday. (*Not the Snow level)




Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)


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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms