Brought to you by Howard Sheckter
Mammoth Weather Outlook
Sunday will be wet
Saturday October 23, 2010
CURRENT MODELS FOLLOWING THE TREND WITH CURRENT WX FRONT FROM THIS AM NOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND UPPER SHORT WAVE JUST PASSING THE CA/NV BORDER AT THIS TIME.
UP STREAM SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO IMPROVE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
“STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE WEST OF WASHINGTON STATE WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT”
AT 5:00AM THIS MORNING THE 976MB SURFACE LOW IS FORECASTED TO DEEPEN TO 960MB TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS RIDING ON A 180KNOT UPPER JET AND HAS PLENTY OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT. MAIN SHOT OF PRECIP FOR MAMMOTH WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z MONDAY AND 06Z. IN THAT THE UPPER JET REMAINS NORTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE STORM….SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 10,000 FEET UNTIL THE MAIN PRECIP BAND AND WX FRINT ARE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT….SHOWERY WEATHER WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWN TO 8K ARE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.
500MB HTS OVER MAMMOTH REMAIN ABOUT 576DM AT THE SHORT WAVE’S PASSAGE. AN INCH OR TWO OF QPF IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAMMOTH AREA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THE WET SYSTEM, THE UPPER JET REMAINS OVER NORTHERN/CA. SO A MOIST UPPER FLOW NATURAL TO THE SIERRA MAY CONTINUE SHOWERY WX FOR A DAY OR SO THERE AFTER.
MONO COUNTY EASTERN SIERRA HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SUNDAY:
OF NOTE FOR SUNDAY…..THE FRONT RIGHT EXIT REGION IN THE UPPER JET WILL BRING STRONG DOWN SLOPE WINDS TO THE EASTERN SIERRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE PREFRONTAL INVERSION, PRECIP LOADING ON THE WEST SIDE AND WEST-EAST GRADIENT INTO AN ISENTROPIC SURFACE, VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. RESIDENTS IN LOCAL COMMUNITIES SUCH AS WALKER, SOUTH TO ROUND VALLEY IN THE MONO COUNTY/NORTHERN INYO COUNTY AREA. RESIDENCES THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED PROPERTY DAMAGE IN THESE AREAS BEFORE, “IN THIS WIND CLASS” SHOULD TAKE WHAT EVER PREP NECESSARY FOR TOMORROWS WIND/RAIN STORM.
LONGER RANGE: SO FAR…..NO DOWN STREAM BLOCKING IS OCCURRING SO STORM DOOR IS OPEN FOR THE TIME BEING…..ANOTHER AND MORE SIGNIFACANT SYSTEM IS FORECASRTED FOR CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THAT “MAY” BRING SIGNIFACANT SNOW TO THE HIGH COUNTRY…STAY TUNDED…..
DR HOWARD AND THE DWEEBS……….:-)