Sunday the 21st.    Beginning 3rd trimester of fall.

To confirm,  -NAO teleconnection setting up this week. This is our transition. Greenland Block will force a persistent ridge over the far eastern pacific. The are storms that will try to punch through. However, any that might get through will bring wind cooling and light amounts of snow at best.  More info soon.

 

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7:20PM  11/18/21

CPC discussion today made a point in mentioning the teleconnection  -NAO. The dreaded Greenland Block. High pressure aloft over or near Greenland The Block that develops next week causes cold air to pile up over east Central Canada with / Branch of Westerlies undercutting. The ugly point about this pattern is that by wavelength, it forces upper ridging near the west coast.  The Global Models have been struggling with this pattern but it looks like it will win out for a while.

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

 

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11/16/2021

Highlights continue to be a pattern with a broad longwave ridge over the Eastern Pacific with the main anomalous heights over the NE Pacific.  An increasingly split flow pattern initiating about 140W, develops by day+5 with a small area of low pressure developing in the mean off the Southern CA coast, well off shore.  This continues the trend of dry weather for the Mammoth Lakes area and surrounding region through this week. Early in the week 2 outlook, IE day +8, the north pacific jet seems to want to progress further east as the main 500MB height anomaly shift east from the NE Pacific to Seattle.  By Day+ 11 (Around Thanksgiving) The upper jet strengthens over the Central Pacific. At the same time, weak height rises begin to occur over the Central Pac. The main area of anomalous upper heights also shifts east from Seattle. This suggests a possible pattern in transition, much like the 21 day cycle outlook I have referred to in the past several days is going to take place at months end.   Looking at this mornings GFS EXT ENS charts with optimism, there appears to be a trough approaching California at the end of the month with a rather “Significant AR”  for the Central Sierra.  However, the EURO has an AR,  but the upper jet is much more zonal,  and well to our north. Obviously there needs to be much more time for these curiosities to work themselves out!  😉  Keeping positive thoughts!!!  Remember, the warm pool over the Central Pacific often times foster more ARs for the west coast. (The current timing is around the 29th).

Sensible weather; partly to mostly cloudy weather is expected more often than not with highs in the 50s at resort levels and lows cooling to the 20s. There will be periods of wind, mainly in the short term, over the sierra crest this week.  The forecast and outlook is still dry….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

 

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11/15/2021

It was a very warm weekend with the high temperature Saturday the 13th in Bishop, CA of 80 degrees was recorded at the Bishop AP with local sites in town reporting highs as warm as 83.  A high temperature record on November 13th of 87 was recorded during the exceptional warm period during the year of 1906.  The latest 80 ever recorded at the Bishop AP was December 18th 1901. In fact, the only month on record in Bishop without an 80 degree high is the month of January!  Mammoth had its warmest day Sunday with a high of 66 degrees.

The subtropical upper ridge that brought the unseasonable warm temps rolled right into Southern CA Sunday from off shore. This time of the year contrary to Summer, the thermal support for these kind of ridges is usually the Pacific, contrary to summer when its the desert. As a result the ridge is weakening quickly over the state.

The pattern this week is still considered a dry one, even though we may get some very light snowfall early Friday AM. Some changes in the upstream pattern will push a rather strong upper jet into the west coast, flattening our ridge in the eastern pacific. Lots of mainly high clouds, wind and yes, cooling will result. The models have been showing a system strong enough to push 500 MB heights low enough for some light snowfall early Friday morning. Whether or not we get some light snow with snow showers is not the most important point. Rather, its the cooling that results from the lowering of 500mb heights that will cool high and low temps at resort levels enough to enhance snow making capabilities on Mammoth Mt, this Friday through Saturday.

Our 21 day cycle began on the 8th and will end about month end. I expect the pattern to go into transition at months end. What it will transit to is not known at this time.  If you look at ECMWF weeklies for December, and the GFS EXT Ensemble, they all show a transition to another pattern.  Next week will give us forecasters a possible glimpse of where we are going…  In the meantime, it looks mainly dry through Thanksgiving.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)