November 3rd at 4:30PM

Models are really struggling today with the up stream amplification that drives the upper low south Tuesday.  If you read my early discussion Tuesday, I had in the Cons...The concern that the surface cyclogenesis off the coast of Japan is weak and out of place. That maybe affecting the models for the Tuesday system as the strength of the AR appears to be weakening again. I hate to yo yo, so lets wait a few more days to see how it all shakes out.

 

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Nov 2 update is at bottom of this discussion.

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The weekend of the 7th marks the end of daylight savings time. So enjoy one more week of the late afternoon sun before it all changes the following weekend. Now that we have snowpack in the high county, we no longer have the usual 20 degree spread in highs between Bishop and Mammoth. Our highs are closer to between 15 to 17 degrees difference now. High temps will cool to the low to mid 50s this weekend with upper 40s to low 50s next week. The latter is more typical for November.

Winter thoughts..

Three climate forecasters were interviewed by SFgate recently. None had any prognostication of a wet winter. Why, because were back in a La Nina. La Nina’s have a dry bias. True!.   With at said, there are Wet Nina’s too.  Although it difficult to say that this winter will be a wet La Nina, My Gut feeling is that it will be considerably wetter than last years La Nina, as there are some very important teleconnection differences this year over last year. Here are two biggies I believe;

  1. The Quasi Biannual Oscillation is in its Negative Phase. I have posted this before over the past several weeks so look at my achieves and read on.
  2. A very significant warm pool stretches well north west of Hawaii. The most comfortable place for the eastern pacific ridge is over the SSTA in the north pacific. The Dweebs Love the Warm H20 pool there and the cold pool in the Gulf of Alaska. Great Team!! Check this out!!  https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html

The Dweebs believe this Winter will be quite a bit wetter than Last!!  The eastern pacific ridge in this position favors more positive tilting long wave trofs which favors more AR’s  The QBO in its negative phase favors more Strato Warm events I have read.

 

Back to weather;

Over next 10 days there are a couple of trofs that will bring at the least some light snowfall. 1st, a high latitude block develops over Western Canada on Halloween. There is a system that will under cut that block next Thursday. Mainly light snowfall is expected.  Light (1 to 6 inches)  The block breaks down over the following days as a much larger storm approaches prior to the 10th. This storm “may” have an AR as the upper jets rear right entry region favors CA.

Tuesday 11/2/2021

Quick Update;

The Weather system expected for CA Thursday will be focused upon Northern CA with little effect for Southern Mono County, other than wind and cooling. At the Moment, I do not expect anything measurable for Mammoth Lakes precip wise.  With that said, Northern Mono County may get some light rain and snow above 9500 feet.

Pros; The next weather system being touted by the GFS model for next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday has a weak AR with it. Tuesday seem to be the day of heaviest precip. So expect a storm with the potential to bring a few feet of snow over Mammoth Mt then.

Cons; The ECMWF model is much weaker with it and shows no AR for our area. Additionally neither model has the Surface cyclogenesis over the western pacific in the right area for ideal down stream amplification.

So the Dweebs are cautiously optimistic about the early next week storm.

Update this Friday….

 

11-02-2021  1:52PM

Just viewed new 12Z ECMWF operational and Ensemble

They have come in line with GFS for Weak AR,  next Tuesday of next week followed by Dynamic Trof and Upper Jet.  Upper jet at 250MB is as strong as 150knots and its latitude in low enough to give Mammoth a good Whopping.

Snowfall Amounts over upper elevations will be fined tuned later but will begin with a couple of feet by next Wednesday over Old Wholly.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………….:-)