7-27-2021

Although yesterday’s wave that pushed north through Mono County did not bring any measurable rain to Mammoth Lakes, it brought .5 inch of rain to June Lake, .22 to Crestview, .38 to Bridgeport and between .5 to 1.00 of rain to the Tamarack Fire last night. Today guidence shows more of a stable airmass with lifteds +2 in our area behind the wave. Nevertheless a few storms are still possible over the County of Mono late in the day. Tomorrow looks more active with more unstable air and a better chance of thunderstorms. Thursday looks active as well. The overall pattern is highlighted by the upper high over Wyoming and Colorado and a good moist SSE flow from AZ and Old Mexico.  Several spokes of vorticity or northward bound waves will move south to north channeled by a weak upper low off shore and the continental high. Typically, this week of July and into the early August is the peak of the Monsoon Season. (SE flow) Expect beneficial rains for many areas, from deep moisture in our area, and additional small areas of vorticity that will affect our area from the southeast.

Longer range shows drying later Sunday afternoon into Monday early next week behind the last wave Saturday, as the offshore low itself is coming in Saturday PM. More sunshine with no rain is expected next Monday into Mid-Week. Temperatures will be seasonal for the first few days of August.   Week-2 GFS charts show Incipient SE flow developing again by the weekend of the 7th with some isolated thunder possible, then an August heat spell developing the 2nd week of August. There is suggestion of SE flow with it so it may be accompanied by Thunder…..Lots of time between then and now to watch and comment….

One more comment…For the most part, coastal communities of Southern CA have been spared the heat that Interior CA has had this Summer.  This is largely in part because of La Ninas cold SST along the coast and strong onshore flow.   SSTs are warming up now and it won’t be long before Coastal CA gets its first real heat wave of the Summer, possibly during the 2nd week of August.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)