10:40AM Saturday; All Hallows Eve

Mother Nature is giving us a nice day today as winds at 10,000ft (500MB) increased out of the ENE to 25MPH after 5:00AM this morning. Those ENE winds will continue today. This will give us a steller day with clear skys and warm temps by early afternoon. Winds will continue from the the east Sunday but will be much lighter and may give way to more terrain driven breezes. This may allow some haze to move back into the Mammoth area.  These are very subtle changes and may or may not allow any haze to return. By Monday and Tuesday, the upper high as depected by this mornings GFS is centered over the top of us. However, it is a flat ridge that will give way to increasing westerly flow by Friday.  Can’t rule out some haze next week depending upon the fires behavor.   As far as temperatures are concerned, sensibly, there is not expected to be any notable changes expected through Thursday, with highs in Mammoth in the low to mid 60s and lows at night in the 25 to 30 degree range. It is a dry 4 to 6 day outlook.

Windy weather will develop Friday morning as a vigorious cold front approaches. The Dweebs expect mainly light precipitation from this system Friday afternoon into Saturday with strong winds and colder temperatures. This is not expected to be a major precip producer, however, with another system Sunday, amounts may add up. More later on this….

MJO:

The Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to weaken substantually as it moves over the colder waters of the LA Nina Base state next week. So although it does proppagate through the Western Hemisphere, then out over the Indian Ocean, it is very questionable how strong the pattern change for the weekend will be as the MJO will lend little support.  More time is needed to see how it all develops. and how much snow we will get.  One thing is for sure, its convective envelope is likley to light up the Caribbean again and so Huirracane Zeta that hit New Orleans Wednesday, is not likley to be the last Hurracanne to affect The Caribbean in November!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)

 

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4:30PM

Looking out at Mammoth Mountain late this afternoon. it is evident that something is going on over the higher flight levels. That is smoke folks. However it is at Flight levels of 250MB or about 36,000 feet.   Looking at the 250mb flight level charts, the winds are south westerly…While the winds at 700mb (10,000 ft) are East North Easterly. That is why we continue to be smoke free!  Tomorrows winds at 700MB are forecasted to really lighten up during the day. So do not be surprised when the smoke or haze rolls in again.  Sorry for the news, but we have had some great air quality. However, most likely, it will worsen during the day Friday.

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This mornings models runs seem to keep enough ENE flow at 700mb to keep the majority of the smoke to the west of the Crest today and “Possibly Friday” Now…..There seems to be variable periods of NE flow into Sunday. In between are the diurnal terrain driven breezes that can creep the smoke back over the crest into Mammoth.  So it may be that if we do get some haze or smoke,  it may not be a major problem, or like all the time over the weekend….Forecast indices light winds the next 7 days with above normal temps. Highs in Mammoth will be in the mid to upper 60s with lows between 33 and 25 degrees. The colder temps will be over the lowest elevations of town, just below the inversion.

MJO:

  1. Equatorial Rossby wave activity over the West Pacific, and increasing destructive interference with the La Niña base state may be playing a role in the slower evolution of the signal.
  2. Despite the recent slowdown of the intra-seasonal signal,  dynamical models continue to favor robust propagation of the MJO across the Pacific over the next two weeks. The GEFS brings the index to the Western Hemisphere by Week-2.
  3. Due to the ongoing destructive interference, confidence in robust MJO activity over the next two weeks is low; however, should the signal reach the Western Hemisphere, it could help bring about a pattern change from our currently dry pattern to at least some precipitation for California, between the 6th of November and the 12th. The GFS and ECMWF are just picking up on the pattern change for the week 2 period. However, with that said, there is no significant confidence at this time. The MJO will have to make it through the Central Pacific, in this case, the (DEAD ZONE) 160 East then hold together strong enough to modulate the Westerlies. Its forecast remains a moderate Phase 8 into 1, In Early to Mid-November.  There is a decent signal for precipitation in phase 8/1 (undercutting of the westerlies)  In January, this phase when strong can bring us those magnificent Pineapple Expresses. However, phases 2 and 3 (Indian Ocean) are by far the best phases to be in For Central CA this time of the year.  This is probably 3 weeks away.  See the teleconnections for the MJO precip to phase in November.
  4. SEE: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Precipitation/

The Dweeber…….:-)