The weather pattern along the west coast thus far this Summer, affecting Mono County has resulted in drier, more temperate weather. Southern Mono County has had fewer heat spells as compared to many summers and fewer thunderstorm days in Mammoth. Early in the summer there was an enhanced zephyr, as the Pacific NW trof was stronger. This trof, centered off coast of the pacific NW and weak extension south has resulted in mainly high based thunderstorms.  On a synoptic scale, the trof has weakened the AZ monsoon season and has allows almost none of the usual moisture that moves north through the four corner states to reach Mono County. Virtually, no sustained SE flow has developed over Eastern CA, so far this Summer.  That pattern  typically results in the transport of deep moisture from our South East along with upper level forcing around the perimeter of the Continental High. This summer’s upper level forcing has been associated with weak west coast toughing which leads to mainly high based thunderstorms.  Most of this forcing has affected areas of the Sierra well to our north.

 

Highs in Mammoth continue to be in the MId to upper 70s with lows now in the 40s.

 

Looking forward:

The “week two” outlooks  continue to try to develop at least of some periods of southerly flow.  However, the persistence in weather pattern seems to continue for the time being.   It may very well be, that our future heat spells will continue  drier than normal and with mainly high based TSRWs action in Mammoth Lakes. A Stronger Mono Zephyr look possible after the first 10 days of August….

In the meantime, expect mainly isolated high based thunderstorms over Mono County the next two days with most action over the Northern Sierra. This is due to a weak negative tilt trof over Central CA. Dry weather is expected Tuesday through Friday next week. The first week of August looks warmer than normal with dry WSW flow, under the Continental Subtropical High.

 

Long Range Thoughts….

“IF” This persistent trough continues into the Fall…..Expect an early winter…….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)