It’s a great time to be an Amateur Weatherman. All sorts of fun tools available. I have some great friends, now retired that have taught me much over the years……

Today I thought I would include a bit more in my discussion as there is a lot going on over the Hemisphere. Earlier in the Fall I discussed in several posts in regards to the IOD. “Indian Ocean Dipole”. The Indian Ocean is a long way from California. It begins near the Maritime Continent, North of Australia and stretches west to Africa. As climate is what you expect and weather is what you get; the climate can change greatly when great wind systems blow in the opposite direction. In this case, the IOD in its positive phase (Winds blowing east to west} has blown a tremendous amount of warm water from the Maritime Continent to the Arabian Sea.  So with the warmer water being displaced westward, from an area like the Maritime Continent, which is possibly the warmest Ocean Water on a large scale anywhere in the world, that resulted in much cooler water in that area.   The combination of the cooler waters, less convection along with a lot more upper convergence, (Air forced to converge to itself above 18,000 feet, over areas like Australia as well the Maritime has caused a short period climatic variation that forces sinking air over areas like Australia.  Hence the record setting fires that are currently raging in areas of Australia. Even though the IOD is quickly weakening now, there is a new tropical storm over the Arabian sea, that will possibly reinforce that system, keeping the weather hot windy and dry in those same areas of AU for a while longer.   Th good news is that the system of the +IOD appears to be breaking down and so I hope it will not be too long before some beneficial rains return to that area.

 

What does the IOD mean for California? I have done a little research on this, and have found a weak correlation of a colder and somewhat drier far west. This is from the readings of CPC researchers and their discussions. With the IOD weakening, Australia will get relief and the weather over the CONUS with begin to change.  For one, the MJO will have more of an influence in the weeks to come I believe. (Sorry to be so esoteric)  The MJO has been masked quit a bit due to the strong low frequency state of the +IOD, Easterly moving Rossby waves and Kelvin waves. Look for the MJO to have an increasingly affect on our weather and WX over the Hemisphere, by Mid Winter.

 

Speaking of the MJO, it is punching into Phase 4 and 5 strongly over the next 1 to 2 weeks. I do not see much influence over our part of the CONUS with Phase 4, however, phase 5 has a very cold signal for the Far West.  That is week 2 beginning the following weekend and that following week. If by chance that Arctic Air gets off shore, than we are off to the races for lots of snow. We’ll see….

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What happened to our warmer than normal winter?

All the forecasts called for warmer than normal from a climatic point of view. That has not panned out.  Obliviously, the forecasters did not plug in the +IOD!!!!  Well its weakening now so there is still time for that later this winter I guess.  😉

 

Short and Medium Range forecast.

The current pattern of upper ridging into California will continue today with high temps in the Mid 40s in Mammoth through Saturday. There is a wave in the westerlies that will come through Saturday AM. It will bring gusty winds, that will be stronger over the crest tonight and Saturday. The upper Jet Axis is well north of Mammoth just south of the OR/CA border…..So it will be dry. Another short wave will come through Sunday AM, winds will continue into Sunday. The Sunday Wave has a bit more WNW angle and thus in the rear of that wave, there are slightly lower thickness values. (This means it will get cooler Sunday.) The main point is that it will begin to cool down Sunday. Monday, seems to be a pretty nice day as a short wave ridge translates through California. Highs will be near 40 in town. There after, another weather system will dig a bit more in from the NW Tuesday night, (NW Slider) and bring cooler temps with some clouds and possibly some showers. It does not look like a major storm but it will be followed by some pretty chilly air Wednesday. The tempo begins to pick up the next weekend as far as a much colder and stormy weather pattern. This occurs as the long wave deepens over the Great Basin and just begins to retrograde, according to the ECMWF days 7 means. In fact the inference is a significant arctic outbreak over the Pacific Northwest coast during the weekend of the 11th. PS the EURO is a bit slower) Looks like Seattle my get some snow the weekend of the 11th.  The westerlies in this storm is cyclonicly curved; they will dig south down the coast all the way to Mexico. This storm will being some nice Platinum Powder to the high country. With ratios 15:1 possible. I will sound the platinum powder alert later next week. Otherwise it will be a cold storm with a good soaking for the entire state.

I am seeing continued retrogression in the long wave for that following week  13th -18th. If that verifies, as it is a long ways out, expect the storm gates of the pacific to open for the first time this season…..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)