11-24

 

 

I will be posting this afternoon…

 

just a quick note to say that the storm looks very good.  Although it may lift out more like Friday instead of Saturday….

 

It still looks like at least 1 to 2 feet and possibly more on the mountain by the next weekend.

Prime time is Tuesday night into Wednesday.   Snow for the Owens Valley Wednesday and Thursday…..as much as 5 to 10 inches in some places.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…….

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10:00am

 

quick comparison of 12z run to 00z shows some shift of the upper low a bit inland in its track. Some height rises on back side of digging trof.  Will have to follow this change to see if it shows up in future runs….

 

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Saturday Am

Note for holiday travel to the high country

Travelers to the high country via the Owens Valley will want to pay very close attention to the Weather and Road conditions  for Wednesday. This storm with its very cold temperatures and the fact that it will remain along the coast some what cut off is setting up a rather long period of upper difluence over the southern half of the state. This looks like a classic snow pattern for the Owens Valley.  1000-500mb thicknesses suggest a snow level of between 3000 and 4000 feet.

So temperatures will be cold enough for snow on the Owens valley floor early Wednesday into Thursday.

The storm is still a good 3+ days away and the timing still being worked out. However this type of storm suggests that travelers begin their travel with an especially early start to the high country. Tuesday would be better for travelers.

Please keep close tabs on the forecasts from the national weather service over the next 5 days and prior to departure, check road conditions from Cal trans.

The Dweeber……..

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8:30AM 11-22-2019

Last nights Euro and GFS are consistent with previous runs, with the placement of the upper trof. Differences show up in the Run to Run height field with a lowering heights in the back of the trof. This suggests more digging and the ability for the storm to remain off shore longer.  The Euro shows “possibly” some bombing. Not sure if it meet that criteria, with the surface low west of Pt Arena going from 1003 mb to 975mb within a short period of time. Needless to say the storm has the potential to bring some strong winds to areas.   I think that at least for this period time, the EC has a better handle on the pressure field as compared to the GFS as the GFS has come into more agreement with its 06z run. The emphasis is going to be on the cold and snow for most areas of the eastern sierra by Mid Week, including  parts of the Owens Valley….  The Storm will eventually move in over LA and provide up slope to the Eastern Sierra next weekend…  In that the storm taps some moisture from North of Hawaii, the QPF still looks very good, in the 1 to 2 foot range for the upper elevations, but no doubt will be updated in the coming days…

The Sierra, north to south will do very well from this weather system…..

 

There is another weather system following by the very end of the holiday weekend that will be more of a cold inside slider….Stay tuned on that one as well

 

Stay Tuned,,,the Dweebs got you covered…..

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8:50PM Thursday the 21st…..

I thought I would post again today…this evening.

I looked at the new GFS 00Z Friday and the Trof axis is very very close to the west coast. It stays there for several days. I am waiting to see if we get a closed low that spins up Tuesday night that heads south down the coast and wallops LA with soaking rains like the EC showed this AM.  I am awaiting the 00z Friday Euro and I will update in the morning before 9:00AM.  But now to the good news….

The new 00Z Dec 21st ECMWF weeklies, that go through December, have updated and the ensembles show more and more over water trajectory of wetter storms for the Sierra as we get on in the month of December.  This is great news.  What I really like is the 7 Day ensembles means in the weeklies during the 2nd half of December.  The Negative Height anomaly is over the far west!

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It never ceases to amaze me how quickly the weather can turn, not only here is the eastern sierra but over the western hemisphere. This time a massive ridge of high pressure develops over the north pacific at around 150 west Tuesday. Our ridge off shore retrogrades and joins up with a large short wave ridge currently coming off Asia. The two meet next Tuesday and amplify north,  while a massive thrust of modified Arctic air pours out of Eastern AK and Western Canada. The redevelopment of the subject ridge provides a direct pathway of very cold air down the west coast. Just off shore…Rapid Cyclogenesis is possible Tuesday evening.  The system then slows and parks itself along the west coast for two days!   700MB temps are -12 to -13 Tuesday night, cold enough to brings snow to even the lowest valleys of Mono County! Amounts of snow fall at this distance in time still in question. However, considering the snow to water ratios…some 1 to 2 feet would not be out of the question for Mammoth Mt. This will be fined tuned later. The GFS has a bit more over water trajectory so it would tend to be a little wetter.

 

I would still prefer a wet storm of sierra cement for this period, but will take what we can get.   The storm looks to last for two days….  Beginning Tuesday night….

At this time, the Southern and Central Sierra look to receive the heaviest amounts. LA will get some heavy rains as well.

This may bring significant travel issues for the Sierra for early holiday travelers…because of the powdery snowfall and the likelihood of a period of blizzard conditions …..

 

Stay Tuned….