March 18th 8:30AM

After a beautiful weekend, another series of storms will approach for mainly Southern and Central CA. High pressure aloft has formed a block over British Columbia Canada. The westerlies are forced underneath into CA. The systems are coming in negative tilt and so southerly flow will highlight the precipitation probabilities and thus a lack of orographics.    Latest RFC precipitation forecasts about an inch over the west side from the Wednesday Thursday storm. The Dweebs EST between 5 to 10 inches of snow on Mammoth Mt and between 3 and 5 inches in town by Thursday evening. Snow level will start at 7500 Tuesday night and low to 6000 feet Wednesday.  High temps in the 30s Wednesday.    They look to be a break Friday with another system Friday night and Saturday. This look to be another light to moderate precipitation producing system although it is too soon to fine tune amounts as of yet.   Another couple of storms are forecasted that following week…..

 

The vernal equinox occurs at 1:58pm this Wednesday the 20th.

 

The Dweeber………:-)

 

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Winter seems to be wrapping up with the present offshore trof that will bring snow showers and light amounts of snowfall accumulations. The two key periods seem to be Sunday as the off shore upper low settles south, and a deformation zone sets up over the Sierra and western Nevada. I would not expect much more than 1 to 3 inches from a pattern like this for Mammoth. There is another colder system headed our way as the long wave trof shift east for Tuesday into Wednesday. 1 to 3 inches…After that, high pressure aloft will begin to do its job the second half of next week. The ridge may not be strong enough to keep all the short wave energy out of the area, but it will keep any major storms out. Over time as we go through the third week of March….it appears to build even stronger.  Looking at the MJO, many of the models circle it around phases 3 and 4.  Phase 4 typically is dryer out west this time of the year while 3 can still produce some storminess. The Euro want to take it through and past the circle of death back into phases 8/1. That is the area of undercutting and that would typically brings us a warmer latitude storm track which California does not need. The timing for that should it occur is around the 20th.  BTW, The GFS does not not agree….it is more “Ridge City” as far as the eye can see….

However, the American Global Forecast System, ”GFS”, does really warm us up week 2 and that is concern enough because of the tremendous snow pack over the Sierra, especially in the mid elevations between 6000 feet and 8000 feet.  Flooding looks to become an issue at some point….

in the meantime, enjoy this weekend’s skiing and boarding at its finest, as spring skiing is on the way later this month.

PS, The IKON pass is now on sale through Mammoth Mt.  Get this years best price on this pass before April 24th.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…….