Unrelated to mammoth weather….Interesting discussion on Hurricane Lane now south of Hawaii from NHC this morning;

 

The initial motion estimate is 350/5 knots, which shows a northward
turn has occurred this evening. Lane continues to be steered toward
the north along the western side of a mid-level ridge, which is
located to the east of Hawaii. The consensus guidance continues to
show a northward motion, or even a motion toward just east of due
north, as the ridge builds south and possibly southwest of Lane.
The latest track has shifted to the right of the previous forecast
through the next 48 hours. This more closely follows the latest
consensus track guidance. Note that on this track, Hurricane Lane
continues to approach the Main Hawaiian Islands, so there is no
reason to believe that anyone is safe in the warning area. Assuming
Lane begins to weaken, and decouple before, or after, it hits the
islands, Lane is forecast to come increasingly under the influence
of the low level easterlies and begin tracking westward. Again, the
exact time when this will occur remains highly uncertain, and only
a small delay in this decoupling could bring Lane farther north.
This will produce considerably worse conditions over the islands.
Even if Lane remains along the forecast track, significant impacts
are expected in the Hawaiian Islands.

1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Lane, and remain prepared for adjustments to the
forecast. Although the official forecast does not explicitly
indicate Lane’s center making landfall over any of the islands, this
remains a very real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains
offshore, severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well
away from the center.

2. Lane will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands as
a hurricane on Friday, and is expected to bring damaging winds.
Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of the wind
through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These acceleration
areas will shift with time as Lane passes near or over the islands.
Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of high rise
buildings.

3. The slow movement of Lane also greatly increases the threat for
prolonged heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall totals. This is
expected to lead to major, life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides over all Hawaiian Islands.

4. Large and damaging surf can be expected along exposed
shorelines, especially along south and west facing coasts, with
localized storm surge exacerbating the impacts of a prolonged period
of damaging surf. This could lead to severe beach erosion.

 

 

 

Wednesday Evening….

 

Forecast remains on track with a slow cool down. Today’s high in Mammoth was 76 degrees with an overnight low near the village of 48.  However Long Valley and Crestview were in the low to mid 30s……

Parts of Mono County will have its first freezing temperatures this weekend or at the latest early next week.  Temperatures will in general will be cooler than normal next week with highs in Mammoth down as low as the upper 60s and upper 80s in Bishop.

Overall WX pattern driven by upper ridging over central pacific and downstream troughing odd the coast of the pacific NW…..  Meteorological Autumn begins the first day of September…

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………….

 

 

 

For what may be the *hottest Summer on record for many areas of the far west is coming to a close later this Month.  A combination of troughing in the pacific northwest and the Hot Continental Subtropical Ridge over the far west will slowly work its way to the Ohio Valley according to the 5 days means by Week 2. This indicates cooler days ahead, especially during the end of the last week of August. The process will not happen overnight, but will take place over the coming two weeks…..It will be especially noticeable the end of August as an anomalous Trof from the Gulf of AK effects California.

Sundays high in Mammoth was 83 degrees and it was 103 At the Bishop AP. Highs in Bishop will still reach near 100 Monday but will pull back to the 90s as the week progresses.  Normal highs in Bishop this time of the year are in the low 90s.   I expect low 90s by the end of this week.  Mammoth Lakes highs will cool to the low to mid 70s by the end of this week. No precipitation in sight….Weeks 2 cool down may be associated with a strong Zephyr and some freezing over night lows in the high country.

It will warm back up in September…..

 

*Climo Data will be tabulated in the coming weeks….

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)