Although the Westerly’s have picked up strength over the Northern Latts….the weather over Mammoth will trend slowly warmer the next 6 to 10 days. A short wave moving briefly through Ca may kick up some extra wind Saturday along with some unstable air for a few isolated TSRWs and bring a few degrees of cooling. (Saturday Only)

Climo suggests that the temps over Mammoth should be slowly coming down as the days grow shorter.  However, the forecast models are trending warmer into next week. The Dweebs expect low 80s to return briefly by Thursday and again next week.  Nighttime lows will continue in the 40s. 

Discussion:

Prind point….    The ECMWF global model shows a pattern the next 6 to 10 days of slow retrogression and amplification. 1st…retrogression of the continental upper high over the desert southwest then eventually more amplification north through the central great Basin next week.  There is also an area of weakness just off the CA coast that is subtropical in nature that may add dynamics and or channeling. This is similar to the pattern we experienced both in June and again in July. Of course this is Mid August now and it is unlikely that heights will get as high.  Nevertheless, 8000 ft. high temps will likely get well into the low, possibly mid 80s next week as the upper long wave low in the Gulf of AK retrogrades westward.

Again….The EC is showing another period of Amplification early next week of both the Continental high northward, with the Gulf of AK low as far west as 150W….north of Hawaii. This looks good for another period of air mass modification preceding a surge of Monsoon moisture into at least Southern NV, Southern California and AZ along with dynamics next week. Will keep an eye out of the possibility of this moisture making its way north into the central sierra as well. An easterly wave may develop along the way. 

Below is an update from the Climatic Forecast System for the month of December, 2013 for precipitation:

This should wet your whistle…………..:-)

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd4.gif

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………………:-)