It was already 80 Degrees in Bishop at 9:00am today while Mammoth bumped up over the 60. This week the weather will feel early July like, then mid July like as high temps remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal then as warm as 20 degrees above normal by next Sunday. The ECMWF “3 to 5 then 6 to 10 day means” show the upper ridge off the Pacific Northwest moving inland next weekend, then progressing east the following week. The small weakness aloft that has move off the Northern Ca coast early this AM, will spin-up to form an “Upper Cut-Off”. Light upper divergence and our elevated heat source combined with the high June Sun Angle will crack some isolated thunder this afternoon. As the air-mass over the Eastern Sierra moistens each and every day through Thursday, afternoon and early evening showers and Thunderstorms may become wetter and more widely scattered. By Thursday night, the upper cut off is progged to lift through California…taking its upper divergence with it. High temps will resume their climb to record or near highs thereafter.

500mb Heights are progged to peak Saturday into Sunday…then weaken the first half of the following week. But not before putting high temperature records in jeopardy. The Bishop high temperature records for next weekend were set back in 1955 and were 104 and 103 respectfully. These would be “at least” mid 80s at the 8000 foot level if they are reached.  Usually when temperatures get this warm, the “breaking of the Heat Wave” is often times accompanied by an unstable air mass. Thus the Dweebs will reintroduce isolated Thunderstorms to begin again either next Sunday or Monday, as the lid of the pressure cooker is removed and laps rates increase,

 

Longer Range:

As mentioned in my last discussion, it is possible that we may have one more very significant cool down beginning about mid month. The CFS vs2 has below normal heights for California weeks 3 and 4. The 6 to 10 day outlook shows cooling as well.

Looking at the MJO and specifically the EMON; “European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts”. The enhanced convective portion of the MJO shows a significant incursion into Phase 3 next weekend with the composites for Temperatures for June cooler then normal. This incursion lasts about 7 or 8 days. The timing sensibly is about a 5 to 7 days thereafter. Afterwards,  the MJO weakens to the point where it is no longer significant.  So the second half of the following week or between the 13th thru the 16th, the weather may be very breezy or windy with toughing approaching Ca. There is the possibility for below normal temperatures as well.  As far as a chance for another frost goes,  that is certainly a possibility. the Dweebs will let you know about when or if that possibility get closer. That would be about two weeks away, about the 16th of June……Fathers Day.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………….:-)