A gradual Warming trend is expected this week. Last week…..The MJO rolled through the Indian Ocean, retrogression occurred across the CONUS and the long wave trof was over the Great Basin and Rockies. It got cold….we received some light snowfall and that as it! Obviously there is more to forecasting longer range than the just the track and amplitude of MJO. Other teleconnections NAO…the AO, ENSO, the PDO, EPO to name a few as well as AAM must play a part in the overall mix.

Of note, this February will go down as one for the driest for the Eastern Sierra for many years… On the bright side, Mammoth Pass is fairly close to normal precipitation for the date.

This evening there is not much to get excited about. As the MJO tracks toward and through the Western Pacific, it weakens at the same time. The PNA index  becomes quite positive and ridging over the Eastern Pacific will strengthen bringing a return of warmer weather to all of California.  The PNA index forecasted to be positive, up to 1.5 Standard Deviations of normal during the first week of March.  The Dweebs are not excited about any storminess in our future at this time. There are some indications that short wave energy will come through the long wave ridge toward the end of the 1st week of March. However, it is way too soon to speculate on if we will get some snow. In that March is right around the corner…..cut off low season is as well.

In the meantime, next weekend from a fair weather point of view looks about as nice as it can be for the first few day of March. The Lamb has the upper hand, while the lion has apparently lost his way….ok….have a nice day….. 🙂

 

The Dweeber………………..:-)