Saturday AM:

MJO still stuck in Phase 7.

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Ridge in the west….trof in the east, MJO is in phase 7.  It all adds up to a drier then normal pattern for our area…with lots of splits in the short wave action and cut off lows for the west coast.  Typically this is not a pattern that will bring moderate to heavy snowfall and major storminess for the high country. However….Southern California benefits with the cut off lows tap subtropical moisture from the Subtropics and advect it NEward into their area.

The MJO has been stuck in phase 7. (Central Pacific near the dateline) It has spun up some major tropical storms in the southern hemisphere, one near Tahiti that is dissipating now.

The MJO in Phase 7 tends to force a ridge over the west (+PNA) and keeps the long wave trof in the east. The results are pretty much understood now with split flow patterns and cut off lows and subtropical moisture as storms try to come through the long wave ridge position over the far west. It does not work well.

It’s kinda like Forest and his box of chocolates. You never know what your gonna get, and often times where your going to get it. The models do not get it right very often in the current pattern and the longer range forecasts are often times much worse or worthless.

The MJO is expected to eventually shift east:

Looking at the GWO, Global Wind Oscillation:

It is quite strong and has moved past phase 5, (indicating strong mountain torque in the mid latitudes) and approaching phase 6 (southward momentum transport across 35 north.) AAM has become quite positive (El Nino Like)  Still no sign of any extension of the eastern Asian jet, however that would not be expected until the transition into phase 8 if it occurs at all.

So whether we get under cutting or not, at some point the MJO will move to Phase 1 again and reemerge out over the Indian Ocean. That should flip the ridge trof pattern over the CONUS and return the west back into a cold wet period….sometime later in February….possibly much later…..

 

In the meantime, it is important to know that Mammoth Mtn picked up 7 inches of fresh snow Wednesday and Thursday. We’ll probably pick up a few more inches and hopeful a little more over the weekend. Snow Levels will remain between 8500 and 7500 feet until Saturday night when the snow levels really come down,  with the cold air advection Sunday into Monday.  Mondays highs will be in the 20s while the lows will be in the single digits. The Dweebs expect milder weather returning by mid week.  No Major storms on the horizon at this time…..

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)