Fair dry weather returns to the high country this week with warm days and cool nights….The days get back into the low 80s by Thursday with further warming into the weekend…..It should be a dry week over all up untill Sunday….

A dry southwest flow has begun the drying process here in Mammoth. Daytime convection has moved east, and outside of some high clouds and a few puffy Cu….we expect to remain rain free through Saturday. Locally breezy weather with an enhanced Zephyr is expected the next few days.  Daytime highs will remain in the mid 70s through mid-week then warm into the 80s by Thursday and Friday. Next weekend and beyond will be unseasonably warm.

 

Longer Range:

Longer range has the upper high fixed over the far desert SW through the 31st.  The First weekend of August looks s bit breezy in the afternoon with the return of troughing off shore along with daytime highs returning to the upper 70s….

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)

 

 

Forecast Models continue to Back Peddel on moving out residual moisture and so moisture to be recycled on a daily bases untill best SW flow Develops By Middle of Next Week……

Sunday AM Update

 

A line of thunderstorms have developed ahead of a vort center moving up the Owens Valley. The storms are likely to move into Mammoth Lakes shortly with rain, thunder, lighting and possible small hail. The impulse will shift north later in the morning through Mono County away from Mammoth after 10:15 am.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible through this evening then clearing later this evening. It will be partly cloudy Monday PM with only a slight chance of rain over Mono County then dry with a warming trend by mid week through Saturday. Next weekend will be very warm again with high in Mammoth in the 80s…

 

Comment:

This has become one of the most persistent Thunderstorm patterns in years for the Eastern Sierra. After the initial push of south easterlies…..Mid and Upper level winds have been very light the past several days. Recent models runs continue to delay mid level drying, now until next Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.  Thunderstorms will now likely develop here and there, seemingly at random the next 3 to 4 days…..

WX Discussion:

Today Saturday:

Latest Guidance shows light SE flow continuing to move out of AZ into SE CA, then up into most of California throughout the weekend. This will bring a reinforcing shot of mid level moisture to our region this afternoon. To add to the mix, there is a rather broad area of weak low pressure centered west of San Diego. It is being formed within a Coll,  “in-between” the upper high to the East and another area of high pressure aloft to the WNW.  This area of low pressure is forecasted to push a mid level wave into Southern California later this afternoon then northward up through Mono County tonight. It is possible that this will provide the lift for nocturnal storms over night throughout Mono County tonight. Campers should be aware of an elevated threat of rain tonight in the Sierra, after sunset.

Sunday looks like another day of thunder over Mono County, however, once again the models are trying to deepen an upper Trof from BC toward Oregon.  Although the timing is up for question, the main idea is for this Trof to couple with the subtropical low to the SW of us and develop an upper Jet over Southern CA Sunday night which lifts north through our region by Monday Night. This should eventually put an end to our thunderstorm pattern with drying ushered in by the upper jet. Of course the upper jet may briefly create some lift itself through the process for Mono County Monday for a continuing threat of thunder that afternoon before it shifts north out of our area Tuesday into Wednesday.

Longer Range:

Another heat wave looks likely to develop later next week as the Subtropical Continental high expands west again into California later Thursday into that next weekend. It will heat up later next week with 80s returning here in the high country and low 100s for the Bishop area. Then….SE flow and dynamic’s (Monsoon) returns over that weekend with more Mono County thunderstorms….As the process begins all over again!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)

Very Moist Unstable Air-Mass to remain over our area through Thursday with the likelyhood of heavy rain showers high accordingly……A slow drying process to begin Friday with Areal Coverage of Thunderstorms decreasing through Saturday then fair and dry Sunday and next week…..

With Dew Point in the low 50s….PWATs over an inch and favorable Kinematics, there is a high likelihood of Thunderstorms today and Thursday. Locally heavy rain is possible as well today and Thursday from Southern Mono County northward through Central Mono County and eastward to Esmeralda County. The National Weather service has issued a flash flood Watch for Mono County and the Sierra both today and Tomorrow From 12:00 noon to 9:00 pm. Campers, and outdoor sports enthusiast’s should keep in touch with local radio stations which will put out a warning when the NWS relays it to them. Low lying Stream’s, Arroyo’s and rock slides on Mountain Pass are particularly susceptible to heavy rain. Travelers should keep in touch with the National Weather Service via local radio stations in case Flash Flooding is observed and a warning is issued.

WX Discussion:

Deep Monsoon moisture will remain over Mono County through Thursday with the beginnings of a drying trend Friday. Storms over the next few days are capable of producing heavy rainfall. A strong Trof of low pressure will approach the Pacific Northwest Thursday into Friday. This is set up a drier flow from the Pacific, out of the SSW which eventually flushes all of the Monsoon moisture from our region by week’s end. However, for the immediate Mammoth Area we should be thunderstorms free by Saturday at the latest. Beginning Sunday and especially early next week will be quite breezy and dry. Highs temps will continue in the 70s with over night lows dropping into the 30s in some areas, because of the dryer air. The influence of this upper trof is likely to keep our area very dry through next weekend with Monsoon Moisture not making a real comeback until the end of the month.

 

ENSO UPDATE:

Several smaller Kelvin Waves are moving east near the equator. Subsurface warming is taking place again from the eastern portions of the “western pacific” to the central pacific. Eventually, this warm subsurface water will begin to show up in the SSTA’s of the NINO 4 an 3.4 indices later this month with indications of further warming.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………………………………:-)