Mammoth Mt Reports 10 to 16 inches Storm Total…..Cold California Trof to Begin Moving East Early Tuesday with an Upper Ridge Building in Mid week…..Thereafter…The Weather to remain fair through this Weekend…..

Wednesday AM:

This was a Cold Morning in the high country with lows any ware from the low single digits to as cold as -12 at Anchorite, NV near Bodie.  A cold dry air mass continues to spill south at 500MB over the Great Basin while the forecast shows upper ridging building in the next few days.  This all adds up to a warming trend that will be most sensibly felt Thursday through Sunday. Highs at 8000 ft are expected near 60 for Sunday and Monday next week. Night time lows will still be cold the next few night but not as cold for the upper elevations. By Saturday and Sunday lows will range in the upper 20s to low 30s at 8000 ft. The air mass will become inverted by Saturday near 8000 feet at night, and freezing level will continue to rise this week….

The weather looks fair through Tuesday but expect increasing winds aloft Tuesday leading to the chance of a storm Wednesday or Thursday next week.

The Dweebs are still watching for the possibility of an AR event later next week as the ECMWF control is all over it.  The GFS did its dance too last night run,  but was not as convincing. Usually, the European is the better model for longer range as a rule…..So the GFS may snap back into agreement. As mentioned the past day or so, the MJO is lending support to an West Coast AR event week two, extending well on shore to the Sierra Crest…. So the Dweebs are watching and eagerly waiting to see what happens as we get closer time wise….toward the 15th of March.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………:-)

 

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Tuesday Noon:

 

Hello Fellow Dweebs…..I do not think I have ever addressed the reader’s as such. However, if you read this blog even weekly, I believe you’re a Dweeb!   If you have been reading it for 10 years…..Your in serious trouble!   ;-) October this year will be my 35th anniversary of broadcasting weather for the Eastern Sierra, beginning with KMMT and then KIBS which I still to this day broadcast live from my home 5 to 6 days a week.  Getting to the point….If some one out there would like to sponsor me to do the weather by-weekly on the Mammoth Cable Channel 12,  txt Dan McConnell at 760 937-2043 to chat about it. It would be helpful even through the end of April.  Dan says it costs $300.00 a month and includes a video Ad for your business. Txt him if your interested…..I am happy to do it for free…. Please support Dan, who has been an actively video photographing Mammoth and many of its events since 1979…..

Weather Discussion:

Although it will be warmer through this weeks end, there are several important changes that will take place before the end of March that may bring a lot of moisture to the eastern sierra.  The climate weekly models have been touting some kind of a Tropical or AR event for the west coast for a couple of weeks now.  It is getting closer in time, and although not an official forecast, I have to say there are some interesting curiosities that are getting closer in time that one has to start taking a bit more seriously.   Why? One reason is because not only has the GFS been touting a Possible AR event, but the ECMWF is showing it now as well.  Additionally, there is MJO support as well over the next two weeks.  If it was not for the MJO support, I would not be all that excited about the future, but its strong and impressive.   Here are some Anomalies: The following is the CFS V2, 500 MB heights Anomaly and then Precip for weeks 1 and 2 See the confluence for the negative height anomaly confluent with the ‘AR”  That is serious if it occurs. This is for the period March 10 through the 16th .

See: 1. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk1.wk2_20150302.z500.gif

2. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk1.wk2_20150302.NA.gif Here is the progression for Weeks 3 and 4.

3. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20150302.NA.gif

At the moment we’ll just have to wait and see how everything comes together…….No Forecast, Just looking outward….

The Dweeber………………………………:-) ————————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

 

Great Storm…over all total snowfall totals were very close to earlier predictions……The 2nd half of the week will warm up into the 50s by Thursday or Friday…with low 70s in the Owens Valley this weekend….There will be a few hard freezes the next two nights in the high country….. In that the PDO shifted to the positive phase last year, the Dweebs were trying to come up with some of the benefits of a positive PDO  “The Warm Phase of the PDO” They are as follows: 1. A much shorter June Gloom Season for Southern CA. IE earlier, or better coastal weather. 2. Winters are warmer.  More warm winter days in Southern Ca 3. Much better deep-sea fishing. You do not have to go out so far to catch great Tuna and other species normally found much further south. 4. Much more comfortable for Swimming and Surfing as the water is much warmer. As a note; The warmer waters along the west coast are sometimes confused with El Nino. What the coastal waters off Southern CA may have been experiencing, ( and I do not know for sure if it did qualify), was a “California Nino”. Yes, there is such an animal. but it is not the warm phase of ENSO!

SEE: http://www.nature.com/srep/2014/140425/srep04801/full/srep04801.html Longer Range: I see the “Possibility” of a true Pineapple Connection in our future. Not the pseudo one we had in the month of February.  This one maybe attached to a Kona Low which can be much wetter and has the potential of the confluence of a nice Eastern G-O-AK Trof.  This potential “AR” has even has been toying with the inter-seasonal models in February for the month of March.   This will be the focus late this week and into the next for CA.  Although it may or may not happen, the CFSv2 forecast of Weekly Climate Anomalies is seeing something major coming out of the Tropics for the West Coast later this month……   The Dweeber…………………………..:-)

Mammoth MT reporting 6 to 8 inches of cold dry powder this morning…..More on the way!!!

Sunday AM (24 hour) Update:

Although yesterday afternoon’s south push of deformation never materialized enough to bring Mammoth Lakes any snowfall…..Lee Side Upslope did occur over night where Mono Lake effect brought several inches to the Lee Vining area. Upslope precip will occur today and into the afternoon where a few more inches is certainly possible. The original forecast of 6 to 12 inches over Mammoth Mt has been reached on the lower end of the QPF with Mammoth Mt reporting 6 to 8 inches yesterday AM. However, we still have another 12 to 36 hours to provide additional light snowfall accumulations. This upslope will be light today and it may take the whole day to squeeze out another inch or three over the upper elevations. The Shear Lobe coming down the coast Monday Afternoon may effect just the interior Valley of CA or possibly add an inch or two of snowfall depending upon where any convection sets up in the cold unstable air aloft. Either way it will not be a big deal. CRFC gives Yosemite .36 through Monday afternoon. Some of that will be west side precip. However the Dweebs still think that Mammoth is still in about 1 to 3 inches over the next 24 to 36 hours between 4:00AM Sunday and Monday.

We ridge up the 2nd half of the 1st week of March, then another period of precipitation is possible beginning about the 10th of March.

 

It is interesting to note that out west this winter, the feelings are global warming in control……..However in the east, the next Ice Age is upon them with all time records of Cold and over 1000s of miles including Canada….

It certainly has been a winter of Climatic Extreme’s across the CONUS and eastern Canada.

 

The Dweeber………………………..:-)

 

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Current storm working our a bit better than expected as a shear lobe will reload the current system early next week…  Up on the snow plot, 6 inches of snow has fallen at the Main Lodge with .50 inches of water. That is a ratio of 12:1. That’s real nice for carving!!!!   More on the way…..

Yesterday afternoon and last night:

During the afternoon and evening, the upper jet slipped south. The Vorticity field was elongated in Channeled flow and so we did not get the benefit from strong UVM in the warm sector.  However, enough RH within the system combined with directional speed convergence on the west side with the sierra’s topo provided 6 to 8 inches mostly over the crest while just east of the crest like the Village,  4 inches fell, and by the time the air mass traveled over the Town of Mammoth only an inch or two accumulated. Obviously an absence of strong UVM.  It was mostly strong speed directional convergence benefiting the west side up to the crest and a mile or two east…..

What’s next……for Saturday..  A break in the mid to late morning hours for our area.   There is an area of deformation to our north at 700MB and the upper low at 500mb is to our north. That will all be sliding south this afternoon. The Deformation Axis will pass through Mono County between 21Z and 00Z today.  Snowfall rates will pick up this afternoon. So a lot more snow expected later today. By 03Z Sunday, (7:00 PM Saturday night) the deformation axis will be well south down over the Southern Sierra benefiting Bishop South.

Tonight:   The flow at 700MB 10,000 feet will veer Northeasterly….. At 700MB Directional speed convergence will develop along the Sierra Eastern Slopes of Mono County. The RH at 700MB will be 80%-90% and so upslope snowfall will develop by mid evening and continue into tonight and possibly into the mid morning hours. This all according to this mornings 12Z Saturday’s NAM model.  By 18Z Sunday, the upslope weakens with just isolated showers expected over the higher elevations. There will be a shear lobe dropping down the coast Monday. There will be plenty of moisture in our air mass through Tuesday AM. We’ll have to watch the convective parameter’s to see if the air mass becomes more unstable for convective snow showers Monday afternoon. The NE quad of the upper low may favor Mammoth Monday PM…..with the chance of more snowfall accumulation….

Longer Range:

There looks to be a dry period mid week through the next weekend with a warming trend…… The next pacific storm looks to be a good 10 days away…….

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another Cold Storm is headed our way with good possibilities of at least another 6 to 12 inches over the Upper Elevations…..Friday through Saturday Night….Then Inside slider type system Monday Night and Tuesday adding to snowpack……

One again snowfall amounts are expected in the 6 to 12 inch range with this next chilly Gulf of AK storm. The Maverick in this type of pattern is how and where the upper low spins up at 700MB and thus where the area of deformation sets up and how long it remains over a particular area and if that area favors Southern Mono County. That will  be the key to the higher amounts. At the least, we can expect a good 6 inches up on Mammoth Mt and if the area of surface convergence sets up near Southern Mono County or begins to the north of us and slides south, we could see the amount of a foot or better over the upper elevations. Snow fall amounts in the cold air will be at a higher than normal ratio to water, just like the last system.  However, not to the degree to call for a Platinum Powder Alert.  500MB temps are forecasted to be about -28C and 700MB temps about -10C, this will definitely bring snow to water ratios to possibly 11 or 12:1, but it is doubtful it would be cold enough in the Dendritic Growth zone for ratios equal to or >15:1…..  So light and dry powder yes, A blast to easily cut through, but not Eastern Sierra Platinum…..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)