The last days of Summer will have seasonal temperatures and sport a few showers as well…..Then as the first full day of Autumn next week occurs….Breezy with Cooler weather to follow….
Thursday September 18, 2014
Posted at 3:13 pm by Howard
The Seasons….they are a changing!…..the Autumnal Equinox arrives next Tuesday the 22nd at 7:29PM. So after Dinner Tuesday night…have a toast to the best Summer ever! Why? Because from what I have heard….It was the Summer that saved us from the Winter before!
Longer Range Forecasters know that when you get into the transitional seasons like Autumn or Spring, the Global Models and especially week 2 often times get tossed into the Kermode. It appears that the big rebuilding ridge next week is not likely to occur now. Instead, a series of short waves will begin on time into the west coast after mid week. The Dweebs will update again Tuesday AM next week. Today’s GFS was pretty aggressive with a rather chilly Short Wave for the following weekend. However, a closer looks out over the western pacific showed the energy associated with a Southern Latitude low coming off of Asia usually splits the energy coming into the west coast. So another trof coming into our area later next week….Yes. However much weaker then the models this AM showed.
Overall this weekend will support more seasonal temps with highs near 70 in Mammoth and lows in the mid 40s. It will be breezy at times. The trof off shore is currently supporting convection over the northern sierra this afternoon. As the upper trofs sags south, some of that may slip south into our area for some showers and or Thunderstorms, tonight or Friday. Then by Saturday, we become in the NE quad of the cut-off, off the SO Cal coast for some forcing as well, later Saturday into Sunday. Monday looks dry and warmer with a return of the low 70s….for a while. It will be cooler after mid week….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)
Above Normal temperatures will continue both today and Tuesday with a few isolated Showers or Thunderstorms…..A modest trof of low pressure within the southern branch of the westerlies will bring a slightly better chance of some showers and cooling Wednesday into Thursday…The upcoming weekend looks fair….
Monday September 15, 2014
Posted at 11:12 am by Howard
El Nino Update:
Nino region 3.2 has reach the lower threshold of .5C and must stay that way through December 15th to officially be called El Nino. However, the heat below the surface from the Eq….. North of Hawaii to well east through the Nino Basin is once again impressive due to a Kelvin Wave of moderate strength. The anomalous sub ocean heat associated with the Kelvin wave is now beginning to surface and further warming is expected to the Nino Basin. To follow the SSTA’s watch the following link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for
It is possible that Air Sea Coupling will occur well before the Warming peaks to the Nino Basin.
Moisture for Hurricane Odile will remain south of the Central and and much of the Southern Sierra as the timing of a trof of low pressure suppresses the moisture. The Desert Southwest will get a lot of rain and flooding again from this TS…..This time Mainly AZ and NM…
Above normal temps will continue through Tuesday with a slight chance of a few showers or thunderstorms today, with mainly afternoon clouds Tuesday……High temps will be in the mid to upper 70s with lows in the 40s and low 50s. The outlook for mid-week shows a split in the main branch of the westerlies allowing the southern branch to come into CA with breezy and somewhat cooler weather Thursday. The front itself will have some limited moisture with it…..Enough to bring a chance of showers to the high country early Thursday AM. Thursday will be about 10 degrees cooler than today Monday.
The outlook the second half of this week shows the upper trof pinching off into a weak cut off over Southern CA. By Friday PM, a slight chance of showers is expected from mainly upper divergence and surface heating. This will also be true for Saturday PM as well.
Beyond the weekend, the new 12Z Monday GFS builds a ridge into California from the Eastern Pacific for more above normal temps developing the early to middle part of next week.
Summer will go out like it came in…..Beautiful!
The first week of Fall looks warmer than normal with high temps pushing 80 again later next week….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………………..:-)
Above normal temps to continue for the high country this weekend…..Moisture again lurking from another tropical system to the SSE off Mexico…..
Friday September 12, 2014
Posted at 12:04 pm by Howard
Highs this weekend near 80 in Mammoth!
Record high from the past 15 years are in the upper 70s now for the Town of Mammoth. However, going back and using algorithm’s adjusted for this time of the year for The Bishop AP out 60 years shows that Mammoth has had highs in the 80s this time of the year. That is in town. At the Mammoth AP, that would be mid to upper 80s!
No 60 year record high temperature record broken for Mammoth the past 10 days…..Only 15 year records…
High temp records for Bishop AP this weekend were set during the heat wave of 1971 where it was 102 and 100 respectively Saturday and Sunday. This Sunday marks the last day that Bishop has recorded a 100 degree high in September and the rest of the fall.
Latest Satellite H20 loop shows a ridge of high pressure over California with its configuration and axis from 1000mi west of Eureka to San Diego. Warmer then normal temps will continue through the weekend with highs near 80 in Mammoth by Saturday….then into Sunday. By Tuesday the upper ridge breaks down in response to pacific energy and an upper trof pushing into the Pacific NW. As this happens, moisture from Tropical Storms Odile Moves into Southern California. However, this time as compared to Norbert, the TS is expected to weaken off shore with little dynamics moving inland. So rainfall yes in the Southern California and the deserts of the southwest but the magnitude of flooding that occurred last weekend does not look as likely.
At this time, the Dweebs are just expecting a lot of high and mid level cloudiness and afternoon buildups mid week next week for Mammoth Lakes. This mornings 12ZGFS showed between 50% and 70% RH Wednesday night and Thursday AM with a WX front associated with the NW trof coming through the Central Sierra Wednesday night. I have to say that although no rain at this time is in the forecast officially, I would not go to the bank on that just yet. There is a slight chance Wednesday night and Thursday AM. The Dweebs will take another look at it Monday. Either way it would not be much more then showers.
WX the following weekend…
After the passage of the NW trof Thursday and Friday next week. Heights build again over that weekend with a modest north-south ridge over the entire west coast north to south. That is a dry warm pattern. Then…..going into the following week, The GFSX has a rather large amplified Continental High to the East and a fairly deep trof to the west. My concerns other then it would be quite warm with above normal temps to begin with, is that a very deep channel is set up….Well down and off the coast of Baja. Thus any tropical system/moisture can really get entrained. The Dweebs will have to watch this one……
Both ECMWF and GFSX have a cut off low toward the end of September….Like about the last weekend of this month or the last couple of days of September. Something to watch…..For our first dusting of snowfall and the beginning of Indian Summer……
The Western Pacific has been fairly quiet recently. Eventually, that is going to change and when it does, you can throw out all the extended guidance and WX outlooks for California. The climo for September and early October when western pacific tropical cyclones spin up and become constructively phased with the weterlies is for a lot of pacific amplification and then more often then not….inside slider patterns to develop. This is because it is still very warm over the deserts and digging upper jets on the west side of short waves tend to bottom out then move the short wave east faster like in Spring. This is a synoptic scale gradient issue. So for the most part we end up with wind, cooling and showers. The Dweebs will give you a heads up when that is going to happen…..Late this month.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)