Mammoth Weather
Brought to you by Howard Sheckter
Short Term and 7 day Forecast Continue Dry…..However Some Interesting Possibilities Developing With MJO Over The Next 7 to 10 Days
Saturday January 28, 2012
MJO…that elussive little inter-seasonal phenomena may play an important role in California weather, toward the end of the 1st week of February. See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
What is significant is that it projects strongly into the MJO “Phase Space 7″. The NCEP’s NCPE (Operational), NCPB, (Ensemble) and NCPO Bias corrected Ensemble are singing the same tune as well as some of the EURO Models. The Climate Prediction Center / NCEP update will be out early next week and should shed some light on the possibilities then….
Additionally, the climate models are wetter for California (precip) with an under cutting 500mb signature with higher heights over the pacific NW Week 2. See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk1.wk2_20120127.NA.gif
Looking at the MJO Precip composites for the Month of February, there is a strong signal with a strong incursion of MJO into Phase Space 7 and above normal precipitation in Central California. It is several deviations above normal. Although it is forecasted to move into Phase Space 7 about the 9th of February, The Climate models bring wet weather earlier to the state. Could they be too fast? Phase space 7 is the pseudo El Nino State in which tropical convection moves east of the dateline. This would spin up the subtropical jet strengthen it and provide the means for strong undercutting of the highly amplified ridge that is expected to form next weekend. This is exciting stuff……:-) More Later>>>>>>>>
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………..:-)
————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
Temps Cooler Friday and Seasonal Weather Saturday…..Looks Like Another Dry 5 to 7 Day Period Ahead…
Friday January 27, 2012
This is going to be a very brief update with a more detailed discussion over the weekend Saturday or Sunday….time permitting….
An upper ridge anchored to the southwest of Ca will shift eastward to the Rockies later next week possibly opening up the storm door (Slightly) by late Sunday some 10 days from now. Beyond that time frame is a pretty significant Arctic Airmass that is expected to drop south over the Ohio Valley. With the Ridge to the east of us, Arctic air well south into the east, there would be the possibility that a significant storm would track further south into Ca during that week 2 period (2nd week of February) It would be especially wet with high snow levels again…at least initially.
Last nights short wave provided a few showers over night due to a small band of moisture that got dragged along with it. Normally we would not receive anything from a system like that but it did encounter a little moisture along the way. Today will be breezy up over the crest with winds in the 50+mph class out of the ENE. Although there is not much 700mb support of wind….There is a pretty good surface gradient that is developing as a 1040mb high is slipping southeast toward SE Idaho/NE Utah. The next few impulses will come through early Monday Am and early Tuesday Am. There does not appear to be another pre-existing band to work on, however the new 12z run of the GFS had some 700mb moisture that once again gets drags south over Mono County Late Sunday night into Early Monday AM. The 500-1000mb thickness pool is colder with the 2nd short wave Tuesday Am, so early next week will be seasonal to cooler then normal.
More over the weekend………………………..:-)
The Dweeber…………………….:-)
————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
Another Extended Period Of Dryness Expected For The Far West…..A possible system about the 1 or 2nd…..A Change in the Pattern Possible the 2nd Week of February
Tuesday January 24, 2012
It was a real treat this past week. Some real winter weather for the Dweebs to sink their teeth in. However, now it appears that we are back into a funk with the cold back over AK and anomalous warmth over the far west. The GFS has ridging and a positive phase PNA effecting the far west over the next 6 to 10 days. However, this mornings 12Z Run does pinch off a weak trof around the 1st or 2nd of February. I do not think that it will be major as the 8 to 14 day charts are dry. However, in that the Europien model has it as well, it is worth watching.
The climate models do suggest that there may be some under cutting of the westerlies around the 2nd week of February. Between the 7th and the 13th. That would suggest a significant storm.
NAO and AO: The models have been forecasting this big flip to the Negative Phase and outside of a few recent incursions to the slight negative, they are flipping back! The models have been wrong……Horribly Wrong!! Whether this winter is being influenced to the dry side by the rapid increase in solar activity since the fall or not. Persistence appears to be the only way to forecast extended or long term WX this year…. And that wet periods here in the far west are likely to occur during periods of signifacant pattern transitions, rather then a real pattern change that lasts more than a week. There is a vulgar winter classification for this kind of pattern…..its called a drought year!
The good news today is that according to Ski Patrol at Mammoth MTN, we no longer can be the driest year since 1976 with 90 inches of snow……as our total is now 106.5 for the season.
Mammoth Mountain now has the best skiing of the 2011-2012 ski season….be sure to get up and enjoy it!
The forecast this week is for temps rising above normal by mid week with highs in the 50s by Wednesday……some cooling arriving by Friday as a Northwest slider brings some dryer air, some wind and possibly a few showers Friday. High temps will cool to the 40s by Friday into the weekend with lows cooling to the lower 20s over the weekend.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………:-)
————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.
