Westerlies contine to pick up strength as pressures aloft build into CA the next few days for some warming….Wet Pacific NW frontal system will sag south Friday leading to Breezy weather Friday Afternoon and stronger winds Friday night….Then light snowfall for the high country Saturday PM….Winter Outlook Looking wetter now for CA….
Wednesday October 22, 2014
Posted at 8:21 am by Howard
Will update later today in detail….
A brief forecast for this morning shows warmer days through Friday with highs returning to the mid to upper 60s and lows in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be light overall until Friday, when they will increase in response to a southward push to the upper jet. The weekend outlook looks unsettled with wind early, light snowfall Saturday then cooling into Sunday……Then light snowfall.
Details this afternoon including a first glimpse at our winter outlook……
It is nice to see some positives with forecasts, for at least a normal amount of snowfall for the high country this winter. WeatherBELL Analytics is a fairly new company. It was started just a few years ago by Joe Bastardi, former hurricane and long range forecaster for Accuweather…. and Joe D’Aleo, the first Director of Meteorology for The Weather Channel. The just released winter forecast shows that for the Mammoth area, about 117% of the normal amount of precipitation can be expected between December and the end of February. That’s a lot of snowfall here in our area! The temperature graphics show above normal temps….not all that surprising for an expected weak to moderate El Nino winter. I mention WeatherBell because it did a pretty good job last winter. Now I will say that other forecasts are not as positive, like WXrisk.com indicating below normal precipitation and above normal temps. The National Weather Service uses more bias in the way they come across in there forecasts, indicating that there is an equal chance for either a wet winter or a dry winter here in the central sierra. They all agree on above normal temperatures.
The CFSv2 the climate forecast model is wet for California and even gets it going on in November……
What the Dweebs Think……………
Here is what I see:
1. The PDO after being negative (Cold SSTA’s) switched to positive (warm SSTA’s) along the west coast last spring and early Summer. However since then it began to weaken in its positive phase until last month. The indices jumped back up from .67 in August up to 1.08. Why is that important?
You may have noticed that significant El Nino’s have been absent for quite a while. There is a coincidence to that. During this phase of the PDO cycle which can last 20 plus years El Ninos are less common and are generally weaker. The fact that we are seeing a strengthening +PDO may lead support to the fledgling El Nino that is trying to get going. The way the cold SSTAS are extending eastward from the NW pacific toward the east central pacific is a positive sign for the occurrence of higher AIM and further development to a Significant warm ENSO phase this winter.
2. The SSTAs off Baja are at historically high levels since 1949. This would provide fuel for the storms to act upon this winter.
Snow cover is rapidly increasing over eastern Siberia giving support to a -AO winter. That tend to provide more meridial flow or blocking….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)
Series of Fall Trofs to continue their march into the west coast with longer wavelength causing some spliting Friday. Weekend looks Cool with near seasonal temps….Stronger more consolidated trof moving in by Monday night with strong winds possible…
Wednesday October 15, 2014
Posted at 8:24 pm by Howard
The march of westerlies continue their trek eastward, with the pacific northwest the benefactor for precip. Although Northern California may get some light rain north of the Bay Area at times….Mammoth will remain dry. Temperatures in Mammoth will range from the low 60s, Thursday and Friday. It will be cooler Saturday (59)….then climbing to the upper 60s Sunday. Nighttime lows now in the 20s and 30s. The next significant Trof will move in Late Monday with winds on the increase. Expect clouds Tuesday with little chance of any rain or snow.
At the moment….The Longer range outlook is for dry weather and warmer temperatures the weekend of the 25th.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)
Get out this Weekend and take Some Fall Pictures…..The Fall Foliage has Peaked in the High Country and Potential Windy conditions are expected Later Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will strip a lot of the Aspens Next Week…..
Friday October 10, 2014
Posted at 8:39 am by Howard
Friday AM Update:
It will be slightly cooler today over yesterday with at least mid 60s in the forecast for Mammoth Lakes. The long wave upper high although weaker, will both retrograde westward later today and Saturday then expand into CA from well off shore. This will have the effect of bringing some warming back into Mammoth Saturday. (Upper 60s) However, with the new long wave ridge further west Sunday and although the heights will be higher Saturday into Sunday, a system moving into the Pacific NW and then Northern Great Basin Saturday night into Sunday with bring cooler air at the surface. A back door style cool front will push through. Surface pressures will build behind the front over the Great Basin for cooling Saturday night and Sunday. This will bring about 10 degrees of cooling Sunday over Saturdays highs. High temps in Mammoth will be near 60 on Sunday. “A Real Fall Day”. Some brief warming will occur Monday after early AM lows drop into the 20s that morning.
Some of the Models now stronger and deeper with the West Coast Trof Tuesday night and Wednesday. The GFS from the 06z run last night brings the possibility of showers as far south as Mammoth/Yosemite. The Dweebs will look to see later today if the other models follow and will update Saturday. As mentioned in the headlines……Potential moderate to strong winds may be headed our way Tuesday into Wednesday so do not wait to snap those Fall Foliage photos this weekend…..I understand that the walk around Convict Lake is spectacular!!!
Longer range ECMWF shows another significant Trof beyond the following weekend (21st of October), as the tempo picks up with the Westerlies. Additionally….I see several systems headed into the west coast through the 25th. The wet season is beginning now for mainly the Pacific Northwest and Northern CA. It is possible that some of those will bring some rain and snow to our high country over the next 3 weeks……It is beginning to happen…..
Latest NCEP, CFS VS 2 Model for Precip shows close to an inch of precipitation by the end of October for our area and for November up through the 24th about 2+ inches for a total of 3 to 3.5 inches.
So far the ECMWF is pretty dry through the 25 of October…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….