Seasonal temperatures will continue this week with some warming by weeks end…..First Fall like Trough to effect the High Country Labor Day Weekend
Wednesday August 24, 2016
Posted at 4:15 am by Howard
After some rain the past few days…drier air has pushed in from the Northwest as of late. No rain is expected in the high country through Thursday. After Thursday, the upcoming weekend shows a slight uptick in temps, as well as some increase in mid level moisture enough for the slight chance of thunderstorms. Daytime highs will range in the mid 70s climbing to the upper 70s late in the week. A weak mid latitude trof will increase winds Monday into Tuesday morning for Northern CA. Over the south central sierra, the usual Zephyr will occur with afternoon breezes of 15 to 25 MPH each day into the early evening hours.
End of August and Labor Day Weekend Outlook:
The 2nd half of next week looks a bit cooler and breezy as the first fall like trough settle’s into the Great Basin over the holiday weekend. The ECMWF probably has the right idea with Eastern CA on the back side of this weather system bringing cooler weather with highs in the 60s at resort levels and nights in the 30s. The Dweebs will have an update on the pattern change next week….
Thursday PM Update: The west coast Trof “is trending” cooler and deeper into the holiday weekend. This really bares watching!! Both ECMWF and GFS has a anomalous trof over the holiday bringing much cooler than normal temps. On todays 06z run of the GFS…it even sprouted a few snow flakes over the crest Sunday. Now this forecast period is still a good week away. For those planning back country travel over the holiday weekend you might want to think about packing some thermals and consider a shift from a summer bag to a 3 season bag to sleep in, especially if you are going above 9K.
I will have an important update early next week…..
Thoughts about the weather for fall of 2016:
Old Farmer Almanac came out with its Winter Outlook for CA. Colder than normal and dryer than normal. They claim that their forecasts are 80%
The Dweebs agree that the Fall/Winter has a below normal bias for temperatures with the Trof in the West. Arctic air will probably spill west into the Great Basin several times during the late Fall and Winter of 2016/2017. This will bring Mammoth some pretty cold weather at times.
ENSO: With a weak La Nina, there is not much bias in precipitation one way or another. As mentioned before, the MJO has its best effect upon the west coast during “weak” (-.05C) La Nina Winters with a higher probably of AR events. So it may be that most of our precipitation will fall during short period high intensity precip events this winter.
Folklore: Rumors of a wet winter because of what is happening in the Southern Hemisphere is just that……Rumors that have no scientific bases…..Coincidence is not science.
The Blob of warm water:
The good news so far this Summer, is that the Blob is set up a bit further west…Just west of 140W ATM. Again that would argue for a Western Trof and occasional cut off lows dropping down the coast in the fall. There should be some very nice large scale Trofs effecting the west coast this winter as well. Remember, low solar argues for a colder bias to winters in the west. However, if the Blob snuggles east up to BC coast and the warmth fills in along the west coast, that would spell trouble again. For the time being the coast is clear….no pun intended.
Will know a bit more later in the Fall about the upcoming winter as the QBO….SSTA pattern and final ENSO forecast is taken into consideration.
Weak Upper Low off the Central Coast to drift south…providing a continuation of afternoon convection and easterly flow over the sierra…warm days to continue with the slight change of showers and T Storms through Tuesday……Solar Minimum on the way……Increasing Odds for wetter CA winters in the coming year’s…..
Friday August 19, 2016
Posted at 8:57 am by Howard
Weak upper low remains quasi stationary off the Central CA coast the next few days. This is good news for the Mammoth area in that an easterly flow will tend to keep smoke from burning fires to the west of Mammoth.
This mornings forecast model run shows the upper low shifting south early next week with SE flow developing for our area in response to the location and track of this weak system. This will cause a quick import of Monsoonal moisture into the Sierra for a better chance of rain and thunder Monday and Monday evening. Otherwise expect isolated storms with moderate rain directly below storm cores. Daytime highs will range in the low 80s the next few day with nighttime temps in the upper 40s. It is expected to be a little cooler Sunday into Monday…then a warm up mid week, next week when dry weather returns.
The Solar Minimum returns in the coming years…..there is a quasi linear relationship between Solar Minimums and colder wetter winters for California. (Opinion) This is not a suggestion that Global Warming is ending…..Rather the possibility of a pause.
As another comment, I found it interesting that the Old farmer Almanacs’ winter forecast which is often times wrong got it right last winter for Southern CA. It was right when top scientests forecasted a wet winter for Southern CA due to El Nino. What is note worthy is that The Old Farmers Almanac uses the solar cycle in their long range forecasts. Of note; it will be very interesting to see what their winter 2016/2017 looks like, as the sun dives to solar minimum!!! I bet their forecasts turn wet for all of CA the next few years….
See some recent articles at the Following link: https://nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com/
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..
Upper trof lifting quickly NE today as Upper Ridge builds in….Quick warmup now into the weekend with low 80s expected in Mammoth Lakes…..Scripps/MPI Hybrid Coupled Model continues to back peddle on strength of La Nina for upcoming winter…..Peak of the Perseides Meteor Shower after midnight tonight…..
Thursday August 11, 2016
Posted at 7:24 am by Howard
Sunday AM Update:
It was a warm one in Mammoth Saturday with a high temperature of 85 degrees. This Summer there has been more mid 80s then I can remember….. One reason for this is that the AZ Monsoon has been pretty much absent this Summer. I have written about this several times in past discussion’s and so will not go into to it again. Anomalous weather patterns are usually caused by the domino effect of larger scale occurrence’s.
Although it will be very warm through the middle of this week with more low to mid 80s in Mammoth, there are important changes this week that may lead to fire weather concerns for the next weekend. The eastern pacific high will retrograde and build out at 140W by Thursday. This pattern change will send short wave energy tumbling south along the west coast. The latest GFS run and its ensembles develop an upper level low off the Central CA coast Thursday and drift it SE through the weekend. The pattern suggests strong upper divergence over the central then southern sierra. The upper low does develop moisture and PWAT with upper dynamics. This developing pattern will have to be watched for next weekend as far as lightning concerns in an extremely dry forest.
Warmer temperature’s are on the way for Eastern CA as another warm ridge builds over the west coast. High temperatures will climb to the lows 80s this weekend and remain there into next week. Once again this is a dry pattern as the monsoon remains shut down until further notice. Lows at night will be mostly in the 40s this weekend… Winds will remain light. At this time, the outlook remains dry for the Eastern Sierra with little to no chance of the Monsoon developing….What may happen is that a Col may form off shore allowing some upper level divergence to develop the following week…We may get some showers that way…
Scripps continues to back peddle on the strong La Nina predicted earlier this year for the Winter of 2016/17. This actually increases the chance for precipitation in the Southern CA area. Stay tuned!
Tonight is the night and mainly after 1:00AM for the Enhanced Perseids meteor shower display. Go to bed early then get up at 2:00AM….. Constellation Perseids will rise in the East…. Moon sets just after 1:00AM…… Friday night is past peak but it may still be good….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)