Winter Storm Warnings have been Hoisted for Mono County for this Evening Through Saturday AM…..Snowfall forecasts get ramped up again by models this morning……Storms arrival will be more toward this evening….Expect mild dry weather next week……

The Various QPF model forecasts continue their trend of ramping up snowfall estimates for our area over the past 24 to 36 hours.  Furthermore…..Model runs continue to be very consistent in the storm’s track. The cold air in this system by most winter storm standards is average with a large -25C Isotherm on the back side of the upper low at 500MB and -5C at 700MB. Certainly not platinum powder standards, but a good wholesome sierra base building system. CRFC has increased their QPF for Yosemite and Huntington Lake to about 1.55 inches. Historically, with this type of storm, Mammoth Pass can get about 2.00 inches of water. So the Dweebs best guess is that the Sierra Crest will see between 18 to 22 inches at about a 10:1 Ratio as an average.  We’ll see how that works out by the time the storm is over by Saturday night.  This is certainly a good start and especially for the Southern Sierra which will benefit the best from this storm.  As of 9:30am this morning the latest (15Z) run of the high Res HRRR showed precipitation just beginning to slop over the crest at between 7:00 and 8:00PM tonight. So there should be plenty of time for the Trick or Treaters to get their job done if they start early. Thereafter, snowfall rates ramp up quickly after 9:00PM with Moderate to Heavy snowfall by 06Z Saturday.

 

Longer Range Outlook trends drier the first half of November then wet the second half…..

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)

1st Winter Storm Watch for Mono County Friday Night for 6 to 12 inches of snow in the Town of Mammoth….Expect between a 12 to 18 inches over the Crest.

Thursday 12:00 Noon:

 

Latest HPC guidance has finally picked up better on the split with more energy in the southern Branch as compared to last Tuesday.   WSFO RNO doing a good Job!

Could see a foot in the Slopes by Saturday…..and about 18 inches over the higher elevations….

 

The Dweeber…..

 

From this morning:

One last day of warm weather this month before the Snow begins to fly by All Hallows Eve.  At 1730Z a strong upper early season Trof was crossing 140west while the active front was moving east through 130west. Models have been remarkably consistent in splitting this trough off the OR/CA border early Friday morning with the main energy headed toward South Central California. I just hope it does not split any more than Progged as that would put more energy into Southern CA. Not that Southern CA does not need the rain, but snowfall in the Central and Southern Sierra benefits both of us.

Expect upwards to about 15 inches of snowfall on Mammoth Mt and between 5 to 10 inches in Town by Saturday.  Precipitation will begin in the form of either rain or Snow/Rain mix in town during the afternoon. The freezing level will fall all night and so it should be snowing by evening with the heaviest snowfall about midnight through Sunrise Saturday. By Saturday AM…….Residents will awaken to a Winter Wonderland in Mammoth Lakes….   Saturday should be snow showery with a few inches possible. Sunday will be PC, Cool and dry.

 

The Outlook calls for a gradual warming trend next week with a chance of showers by the end of next week….temperatures will rise back to the low 60s by Thursday.

 

PS….Mammothweather.com has initiated the Platinum Powder Alert system  Sign up today!!!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

 

 

Warmer Weather the next Two Days with Light Winds and PC skies…Winds beginning to come up Firday with a Chance of Snow Friday/Night…..

Wednesday AM Update:

1. Splitting Trof off the pacific northwest Thursday night will shift most energy into Mono County Southward.  Even Los Angelus will get rain now from this storm. Snowfall in the high country will average a foot over the crest with 3 to 6 inches for the Towns of Mammoth and June. Friday will be increasingly windy with gusts to 45 MPH in the Town of Mammoth so for the trick or treater’s…..get it done early!!

 

For Today and Thursday…slightly warmer temps can be expected with highs in the mid to upper 60s…..Lows in the 30s

 

 

Tuesday PM Update:

The Dweebs took a look at the latest QPF from NCEP/WPC and noted that Mono County was in for about 1/2 inch of QPF.  It also indicated that the Northern Sierra would fair better with over an inch of precip. I looked that both the 00z EC’s QPF over the weekend and the 18ZGFS.

NCEP/WPC must be looking at and using the EC for its guidance. However at this distance in time, the GFS is probably better with at least an inch of QPF for Mono County over the Crest.  The latest guidance is splitting the Trof as in comes inland with more of the energy diving into Mono County than the Northern Sierra. The net effects would be to slow the system down and begin the precipitation later in the day Friday and delay the main precipitation until later that night of Halloween. By Sunrise Saturday, the bulk of the snowfall will be over, with a cold showery snowfall pattern continuing throughout the day.  It will be cold Saturday with highs in the 30s….  How Rude!    Expect gusty winds of 30 to 40 MPH at times…nothing unusual for Mammoth Lakes Friday.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………..:-)

 

Monday AM:

Slow warming trend underway as some flat ridging takes place. Thursday will be the warmest day with highs in the mid 60s in Mammoth before the 1st good storm moves in Friday afternoon. Great news today as although no official El Nino declared by NCEP because they use the ENSO 3.4 region as a guide, a couple of the indices are ready touting it.  Of Note: The SOI; Southern Oscillation Index Value from Queensland, AU for the last  90 days  is -8.3. Daily Contribution -10.6.  This along with the MEI says we are already there…..That weak El Nino conditions are under way.

New 12z Monday GFSX and 00Z Monday ECMWF are similar that over the next two weeks a series of significant storms are headed for Central and Northern CA….

Longer Range:

It all good……

Todays NCEP CFSv2 from has The Mammoth Lakes region’s Precipitation at a 250% Deviation from Normal with 8.5 inches of water EQ by November 30th.  If that verifies….At 10:1, 85 inches of snow by months end over the upper elevations.

Dec:

Mammoths Precipitation as a deviation of normal from December 1st through the 10th is 150% of normal.

Additionally…the model shows an additional 1.5 inches of water the first 10 days of December for a total of about 9.5 inches of water over the next 45 days. That would be 8 feet of snow the way it falls over the upper elevations….If it works out.

 

More Later…………………………

 

The Dweeber………………….:-)