No Doubt About It….Major Blocking Has Developed Near The Dateline And Northern Atlantic…..Subtropical Ridge To Keep Most Storms Well To Our North
Monday December 6, 2010
Posted at 9:26 am by Howard
We’ll the Dweebs knew it had to happen at some point this La Nina Winter. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has gone pretty Negative, and as well, the -AO (Arctic Oscillation). This teleconnection simply put, keeps the East colder then normal and the west warmer than normal. The far west should be quite wet from Northern Ca, northward. The Atlantic block will also continue to import cold frigid air with some interruptions…into parts of Europe for several weeks.
If you remember, the early part of January this year was highlighted by record -AO and -NAO standard deviations from normal which brought extreme cold to western Europe and the eastern CONUS. It looks like a repeat of that is in the cards once again.
The West Coast:
For the most part this season, the strong pacific jet has come to our rescue in freeing blocked up patterns. A MJO in October of this year was an example. But of course blocking in October is nothing like Blocking in Dec and Jan! The Dweebs are hoping that a current developing MJO will spin up the jet over the western pacific in the coming week or two and eventually cause the Pacific Block to break down.
Looking at the Wheeler-Hedon Phase Space, I have to admit, I am not all that impressed this morning with the progress of this developing system over the Maritime Continent. The CMET and UKME seem to have the best handle on it. Even so, they are not all that impressive in their forecasts over the next two weeks.
Last Night’s Storm:
To sum it up, fast and furious!
It began snowing just after halftime during the other battle going on back in Baltimore. The way Ben R. played, in my estimation, the Steelers deserved the win! 😉
So between 7:30pm and midnight, it snowed at a rate of a good 3 to as much as 4 inches an hour. So much for moderate snowfall! 🙂
By the way….my Ol’ buddy the late Don Marcellin, once told me that during the winter of 69…It snowed at rates between 6 and 12 inches an hour! Do you think that would qualify for R3 conditions?
Expect a mostly sunny day today with strong gusty winds over the upper elevations decreasing tonight.
Highs in Mammoth today near 40….lows in the teens. It will be a pretty mild week for the remainder of this week. There will be a period of over running Wednesday. However, most of the precip will be well to our north. This pattern with the Blocking high over the Dateline may last for a long time. Unless some how we manage to get a strong destructively phasing jet developing over the western pacific….we may have to be content with short periods of storms that occur only when the block temporarily breaks down or weakens. Thus allowing a progression or an extension of the 140W long wave trof to sneak some energy into the Central West Coast. One thing looks inevitable…that the pacific north west will eventually get hosed from the tropics this year!
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms