Mammoth Readies Itself For A “Mammoth” series of Storms!
Thursday December 16, 2010
Posted at 6:01 am by Howard
Just had discussion with Alex…..Leed forecaster with NWS RNO:
One more day “today” to make sure everything is in order.
1. If you have a gas powered electric generator, make sure you have gas and it is working properly.
2. Snow blower working, extra sheer pins available and of course shovels handy.
3. It look like more snow now as the models are coming in cooler. Nevertheless, those that are in low lying areas of town should clear out their culverts to make sure they are free of debris.
5. We are expecting a good 3 to 4 inches of water EQ in the Town of Mammoth between Friday night through mid day Sunday. (2 to 3 feet+) High winds of 60 MPH in town, coupled with the heavy snow fall will create a loading problem for trees and power lines. Be prepared for possible power outages.
It will be a mess in town Saturday so CHAIN UP for 4WD may become a necessity.
Again the models have been trending a bit cooler the past 24 hours and so it may be, that the period of rain will be shorter lived for the town, which will impact the town with more snow. Avalanches may becomes a problem in non controlled areas. You folks in the June Lake loop should be prepared as well as you will get buried…..
Folks…this will be the kind of snow that you get stuck in. Even for 4WD’s. Very heavy, dense, moisture leaden cement. So get your chains ready for your FWD’s Saturday and be extra safe!
Better yet, probably a good idea to stay home!
A deep Eastern Pacific closed low is forecast to drift toward the Pacific Northwest with the center remaining off shore into Sunday. This cold upper low and associated polar jet will combine with a fetch of tropical and subtropical moisture emanating out of another tropical low located along the date line at 23 north latitude. This tropical low which has been part of an ongoing REX block has been tapping moisture out of the ITZ. The under cutting subtropical jet and associated moisture will combine with the polar jet, north and east of the Hawaiian islands creating a copious precipitation event for both Northern and Central California. Then into next week……although the models retrograde the tropical low…..the remaining moisture train continues a few more days and continues to be entrained, into the long wave trof parked off shore.
A steady stream of moisture along with strong upward vertical motion will impact the northern 2/3s of the state. The upper jet aligns from Oregon to Central Ca through the weekend gradually sliding southward. This mornings the latest guidance still shows that the heaviest precip will be through Northern and Central Ca….with QPF totals, according to HPC, up to 6 inches by Sunday morning. Another 5 to 6 inches is expected between Sunday morning and Tuesday morning.
Outlook: More storms on the way over the holiday with breaks……
One more thing……although the REX block breaks down the middle of this week…it redevelops the following week…..
On the realm of Global warming and Global cooling……
Did you folks know that the sun is unusually quiet?
In fact it is spotless again this morning.
Geoff Sharp is a solar scientist.
Below are his comments this morning…..
2010/12/16 8:00 1133 is still just visible but is under the threshold at 240 pixels. There is a small speck region measuring 83 pixels in the early northern region that shows some potential on the magnetogram. There is also another region on Stereo Behind about to rotate on that may be worth watching. Its cold in the NH right now, the predicted massive northern winter is beginning to happen.
Yesterday’s adjusted F10.7 flux figures measured at 20:00 UTC recorded 84.2 (87.5), on the way down again. The DSN value for today is 110 with the previous measurement at 214.
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.