One more Great Basin slider before upper ridge moves into California Tuesday for above normal temps and very light winds…..temperature inversions will rule by mid week……MJO is at peak now in the favorable teleconnecting area….models hinting change….
Friday January 21, 2011
Posted at 7:45 am by Howard
Today Friday will be a warmer day with highs back up into the low 50s…winds will be light. Mammoth Lakes high temperature will be 51 degrees.
The next and last inside slider of the series will drop down from the Pacific Northwest and into the Great Basin and Rockies tightening up the gradients once again and increasing winds along the eastern slopes Saturday afternoon and night…then decreasing Sunday afternoon. Not a lot of cooling with this system…possibly 5 degrees……It will be dry.
The Eastern Pacific ridge will progress into California by Tuesday. With the Upper ridge at 120W, fair and calm conditions will result with upper elevation inversions and decreasing air quality for some areas. Temps will climb back into the low 50s with over night lows mainly in the 20s at resort levels. Winds next week for the most part should be unusually light for January. Although the intensity and shape of the west coast ridge is handled differently by the global models, other then for the Eastern CONUS….sensible weather for the State of California will be unaffected the next 5 to 7 days with warmer then normal temps at resort levels and throughout Southern Ca. There will be some cold air trapped in the high elevation valleys early next week. Southern Ca will have periods of off shore flow so…..Beach Bunny wx.
At peak now. The Dynamic MJO Model begins to weaken the inter-seasonal oscillation next week. The Dweebs have noticed that some west coast signature has been trying to occur. The 18z Thursday run of the GFS had the classic amplification….cut off anti cyclone over AK, with a strong belt of westerlies under cutting it with polar jet confluent around the 4th of February with an express out of Hawaii. The following run 00z Friday model flopped back again and then the 06z again showed some effort in undercutting but not all that convincing.
It is obvious to the Dweebs that MJO is trying to modulate the westerlies, however it may be a case of too little too late as the enhanced portion of the MJO will be moving over the cooler waters of the La Nina next week and thus stealing its thunder if you will 😉
So…..if this change is going to happen, it better hurry up! Odds are, that given the intensity of the current La Nina, the system will fall apart before greatness can be achieved. However, that is not to say that some sort of weak, incipient, maladroitic break through may occur during the first week of February…….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………….:-)
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