Archive for February, 2011

Thursday Afternoon Update>>>>


3:45pm Update

Looking at the current situation, it appears that the first of two systems will favor areas north of Yosemite with the greatest snowfall. Nevertheless we will get several inches in town and up on the hill.

The next system is coming in further south and will benifit the south/central Sierra better. Snowfall estimates revised down to about 3 feet+ over the upper elevation and about 18 ro 24 inches in town….through Saturday morning. The system for Friday/night looks pretty good to favor the South/Central Sierra.    


The Dweeber……………………….:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Mammoth Lakes Expeciencing Heavy Snowfall This Morning….The Focus Now Moves On To The Next Storm…….

As of this writing it was snowing heavily in Mammoth Lakes…..

The next system or should I say systems will set up a long fetch and a protracted period of isentropic lift for the Southern and Central Sierra beginning later Thursday night through early Saturday morning. CRFC is painting about 3.5 inches of QPF for the Southern portion of the Central Sierra.  So given Snow to Water Ratios…..Another 3.5 to 4.5  feet of snow between Thursday night and Saturday morning is looking good for the Crest at this time. 


More Later………………The Dweeber………………>>

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

1st Major System Moving In After Midnight with 2 to 3 Feet Expected By Thursday AM On Mammoth Mountain…..Next System Looking Interesting For Friday/Night

It appears that we will be entering into a very cold unsettled period relative to the season. The current long wave trof will slowly make its way toward the west coast this week. The first salvo is currently bringing strong gusty winds along with the beginnings of a cooling trend for the high country today Tuesday. The first cold front moving through Wednesday afternoon is expected to be very dynamic. Although PWA is not expected to be all that great for the Sierra, the strong UVM  should more then make up for the lack of deep moisture. The storm is expected to bring up to a foot and a half  to the Village, the period beginning   Wednesday though early Thursday morning.  The following system within the long wave is being handled differently between the ECMWF and the GFS.  The GFS is quit a bit slower as the system spins up a surface system off the south central coast.  According to the 12z Tuesday GFS…..There appears to be a three impulses of interest. Two strong impulses within polar jet with Maritime air. The systems are along 140west and the lead at about 38 north at 4:00am Thursday morning. There are two distinct jet-lets with these little jewels. The lead has 130 knots at 300mb as the jet turns the corner eastward with the other still coming down the pike at 50n. The two system combine later Thursday PM with the upper jet heading for Southern Ca as a  cyclonically curved upper jet into Southern Ca by 4:00pm Friday. Considering 500-1000 thickness falls Friday night to 540 then 534 dm…. and the front left exit region over the San Fernando Valley NE through the Antelope Valley it could get interesting for snowfall through the grapevine and all along Highway 14 through portions of the Mojave desert/Lancaster later Friday night. No doubt the southern portions of the Owens Valley and possibly northward could be under the gun for snowfall as well.  A swath of 90% RH at 700mb extends up the Owens valley as well as thickness as low as 1000-500mb thicknesses of 534dm by Saturday am. The third impulse will keep our air-mass cold and showery Saturday.

Outlook:

The  upper level long wave is slowly progressive and shifts into the Great Basin about the 20th of February. There after,  if the proggs are correct…either west coast sliders or even California sliders will continue the trend of cold, light to moderate precip producing storms depending upon if there is over water trajectory or not, until the next significant period of central pacific amplification takes place toward the end of the month.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)



————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.