Archive for March, 2011

Couple of inches of new snow fell over Mammoth Mtn Last night with a inch or so in town…..upper jet still to the north of us and is where the most activity is…..amplifacation over the central pacific to push upper jet into Central Ca by Wednesday with larger storm possible for weekend

A cold front has stalled over the Central Sierra north of Mammoth this Am. Some light precip is occurring along the crest and near the front according RAMSIS. The showery weather will dissipate through out the day and precip will then just be focused along the highest terrain in the moist onshore flow. 700mb winds are between 15 and 30 knots and so upper crest winds will be between 30mph and 60 mph today.

The strong west to east upper jet of about 170 knotts along 40 north moves onshore Tuesday morning once again favoring Northern Ca and will bring mainly some light orographically induced precip to the Mammoth Sierra

The system is currently moving through north of the big island of Hawaii  taking the same track that the one that moved through Northern Ca yesterday. It is a little more moist and should be a better precip producer for north Central Ca northward. .

By Wednesday, the upper jet weakens and drops toward the Central Sierra bringing windier weather for Mammoth and a chance of Snowfall with lower snow levels and cooler temperatures. At the moment 1st guess would be 4 to 6 over Mammoth Mt. by Late Tuesday night. The system is warmer then yesterdays and so it might be rain/snow mix in town for a while before turning to snow Tuesday night. Update Tomorrow.

A larger storm is still expected for the Central and Southern Sierra after Thursday. This will be a colder storm.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)


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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Little Change in the pattern through Tuesday….Then long awaited southward shift in the upper jet begins about mid-week…..

Not much to add to last Tuesday’s discussion other then to remove any chances of showers today Saturday. The Sunday/Monday short wave has a bit stronger upper jet, and has a bit more moisture. However, is still targeting Northern Ca the most with the possibility of some snow showers or light snow over the upper elevations. The Dweebs would not expect much more then 1 to 3 inches over Mammoth Mt beginning sometime Sunday pm through Monday AM. If, and that is a big if that system drops about 50 to 100 miles further south…that would make a significant difference in the amount of precip.  Snow levels will be pretty high….7500 to 8000 feet

Significant changes well advertised earlier in the past week (see previous discussion from March 8th) begin to occur as upper ridging develops near the dateline causing the long wave trof to deepen along the west coast about midweek. The 12z GFS has the first system effecting the Mammoth area as early as Wednesday. However, that may be a bit fast. Will update on the timing as soon as the models come into better agreement.

The screaming message here is that winter will be making a return….just in time for Spring!



Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Storm Track Takes a Hike To The North For A While With Mainly Dry Breezy WX Fronts To Deal With….Some Snow Showers Possible This Weekend

After a storm that dumped about a foot on Mammoth Over the Weekend….the weather will take a bit of a break as the series of short waves track mainly to our north this week. In the 5 day 500mb means, there is a height anomaly that is situated over the desert south west that will provide more gradient and thus more wind for the upcoming Thursday system. In the meantime, ridging at 500mb is building in and a decrease in upper elevation winds are expected today into tonight. Temps will be warmer today into Thursday. The next cold front may not even make it this far south Thursday pm. However winds up at 700mb will still howl. Expect winds over the upper elevations Thursday afternoon to be strong.

The next in a series of short waves will effect the sierra over the weekend. The upper jet with the system is not all that strong. Nevertheless there could still be some showers but any accumulation will be light of any. The next significant chance of a little powder will be next Monday as the right rear entry region of the upper jet swings through the Central Sierra.

Interseasonal:

MJO:

The CPC currently has a weak MJO moving quickly through phase space 7/8. Odds favor between normal to warmer then normal temps. Also below normal precip for the Central Sierra.  This may be relevant to this weeks 1 weather currently forecasted by global models.

Week 2:

The weak MJO is expected to move quickly eastward into phase space 1 where the odds increase for precip for the Central Sierra for the month of March. This would be during the period beginning about the 15th through the 21st and especially beyond the 21st.

Global Models are trending in that direction……



The Dweeber…………………….:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.