Active Pattern To Continue Most Of The Week……Cooler then normal temps and periods of light snow over the highest elevations, on and off
Monday April 18, 2011
Posted at 8:48 am by Howard
A persistent west to east upper flow through the central west coast coupled with subtropical moisture will keep the weather unsettled this new week. The challenge is in forecasting the breaks between short waves. 8000 ft temps will be mostly in the 40s for highs and 20s/low 30s at night.
At the moment it is showery here in Mammoth with .05 of rain in the bucket this morning. It should stay showery today with decreasing showers after the FROPA later this afternoon. The snow level today will be way up there above 8500 but then lower to 7500 this evening. No significant accumulation in town expected with 3 to 5 inches possible over the crest by this evening.
Tomorrow Tuesday look like a break with short wave ridging moving in, during the afternoon. So the WX will improve as the day goes on and it will be warmer. By Wednesday the next wetter/stronger system heads our way and so by the afternoon snow and rain will pick up again. I have not seen any of the 12Z global models yet this morning, but the new 12z WRF is pretty wet for our neck of the woods. It is painting up to 2 inches of QPF for the crest between Wednesday afternoon and Friday at 18Z. WX fans might want to follow up on this one as the upper flow is more cyclonically curved, as the main UVM comes into play. Additionally, although Wednesday’s snow level seems to be above 8000 feet…..there is plenty of QPF in the WRF after midnight Wednesday into Thursday with the 500-1000 thickness lowering to 546dm. And so a snow level around 6000 is possible if the models is correct bringing at the least, a few inches to the town the following 6 to 12 hours. Again this is just the opperational 12z wrf run from Monday morning…..
The next break appears to be about Friday. with breezy weather and a slight chance of precip next weekend….followed by a stretch of nice weather the early part of the following week….subject to change of course.
The long range has something special for us the last weekend of the month! 😉
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………….:-)
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.