Nice Pleasent Weekend Shaping Up With Slightly Below Normal Temps…….Big Warm Up 1st Half Of Next Week Followed By Cooler Weekend
Friday June 17, 2011
Posted at 9:46 am by Howard
New Articles regarding the sunspot cycle worth reading…….
Saturday 19th Morning Update
Northwest upper flow continues with a dry slider coming in tonight for some breezes beginning later this afternoon into mid day Sunday. Today Saturday will actually be warmer with highs in the low 70s, then cooler on Father’s Day With Highs in the mid 60s. Upper ridging will develop Monday through mid week with some of the warmest temps this year if the ECMWF is correct. Highs in Mammoth 78 to 80 by Wednesday or Thursday…..100 in Bishop Thursday. Then next deepening trof will bring cooler temps into the weekend along with the potential of wind Friday and Saturday a week away. There seems to be no end to the migratory troughs into the pacific northwest and its effect upon the Sierra. PDO is very negative with a strong warm pool of SSTs north of Hawaii…..and so Summer is looking overall to be average here temperature wise. Southern Ca coastal sections with their cooler then normal SSTs look June gloomy for sometime.
Update for Friday 17th
A cool NW upper flow pattern will continue through the weekend as an upper level Trofremains centered in the northern inter-mountain west. Expect little temperature change this weekend withhigh temps in the mid-upper 60s and lows in the low to mid 30s. The NW flow pattern does have a few impulses in it and so there will be at least one weak cool front come through early Sunday morning for some extra breeze Saturday PM into Sunday AM. Father’s Day looks very plesent with a bit of chill for the early Tee-Off at Sierra Star. Possibly some light frost on the greens at daybreak. Daytime highs will climb into the upper 60s Sunday. Happy Fathers Day to all the Dads out there!
Next Weeks Outlook:
An upper ridge will gradually build into California Monday, beginning a significant warm up that will peak the following Wednesday. As a reference, 700MB temps over Mammoth were forecastedby last night 00z GFS to reach about 15C by Wednesday at 5:00pm (00z Thursday). This should be good for a return of the mid to possibly upper 70s here in Mammoth Lakes. All models begin to break down the upper ridge beginning Thursday as another cool Trof moves into the pacific northwest. Of note, last nights 00z ECMWF was about 60dmdeeper withthis system then the GFS, suggesting strong west breezes Thursday afternoon along with about 6 additional degrees of cooling then the GFS. Just in, the new Fri 12z GFS is showing simularheights falls but delays the bulk of the cooling until Friday/Sat. It also keeps the breezes going Thursday and especially into Friday. That would bring temps back down into the low 60s by Friday if it verified with a good 15 degrees of cooling total from the predicted mid to upper 70s projected for mid week. Both models are dry for the high country.
As always……..time will tell.
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.