Dry Conditions to continue throughout the Eastern Sierra through Thursday with seasonal temps……Monsoon Moisture expected to begin making its way into the high country by about Saturday….
Monday July 25, 2011
Posted at 9:02 am by Howard
Is the earth getting too hot…..too cold? Too Wet….too Dry? Is it climate change? Check out what has happened through out the past….and you will see its all happened before in Chronology. http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/Weather.pdf
So far it is the Summer of the Northwest Trof….but not surprisingly so…..when there is so much cold water at the surface in the eastern pacific (-PDO), what else would you expect? Even so, with the anomalously chilly seas, SST temps do continue to warm through September, so more warm summer weather is expected well into August. It is interesting to note that while the east coast Aussies down under are clamoring about the huge early winter they have had, it is just as important to mention that the Kiwis have had a very late start to winter. The significant snows over Mt Cook came late this year. Could the reason be that the warm pool to the East of the island (New Zealand) kept the storms to the south…..? Could it be the at the chiller then normal temps to the east of Australia had the opposite happen with an early winter. What does this mean for Mammoth? Nothing in my estimation! Incidentally, the water is very cold along the east coast of South America…..Bet they are having one cold wet time…see: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43848242/ns/weather/?ocid=twitter
The Dweebs will compare the area of the cold water off the west coast westward, north and south with last winters pool. Will also look at the big positive SSTA north of Hawaii and compare it to last year “next October”. If you remember, last year, the warm pool near Hawaii drifted to the dateline where the mean upper high set up during early winter. That helped to create storms with longer fetches. At the moment the wavelength would appear to be shorter with what is currently in place, however it is still Summer, so out side of some pondering, it is way to early to be thinking about Winter! Will also look at ENSO next October and see if we are flipping back to negative ( nino 3.4) or how negative the Nino 3.4 region in the CPC forecasts are expected. Again, I am still waiting for the NHF that should arrive within the next 7 days from a respected scientist.
The weather does not get better then what we currently have in Mammoth. Highs in the upper 70s nightime lows in the upper 40s and nightime dew points in the 20s. The current slow moving upper trof will clear the area by Wednesday. The dry southwest flow aloft will keep the zyphier going through Tuesday night. Some minor cooling is expected Tuesday. Heights will begin to rise Wednesday with warmer temps while the Mono Zyphier will be weak. By the weekend thunder and showers are in the forecast. Models, although different, are quite consistant with themselfs in bringing SSE flow up into the Central Sierra. Although the GFS has only up to about 50% rh at 700mb Saturday/Sunday, the ECMWF has been consistant in bringing a significant easterly wave up through Central Ca with a juice pot of moisture. Like PWAT between 1 and 2 inches and RH in the 70s at 700mb. This is definetly something to watch as it has been consistant for 5 runs now!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.