Summer comes to an end Thursday as Mid Summer weather continues….Thundershowers possible into Thursday…..Cooler over the weekend with a few showers Sat/Sun…just in time for Octoberfest…….Hilery may effect Baja, Ca into Southern Half of California by October 1st….
Tuesday September 20, 2011
Posted at 11:07 am by Howard
The Dweebs are just loven it!
The weather at the moment is nothing short of spectacular! Strong long wave ridging over the far west will keep temps some 10 degrees above normal through Thursday! Chance of thundershowers will continue as well. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 40s…
Another weak coll has developed between upper high pressure circulations off shore. This upper low will develop further into the weekend…eventually working in tandem with the upper high over the Great Basin to set up a SE east flow pattern. So once again some moisture advection may combine with daytime heating and some dynamics for a chance of some Thunder or just showers.
It is starting to get late in the season for the typical monsoon flow from AZ/MX and the convective effects from daytime heating. The shower producing convective type system really winds down as we go into October. More emphasis will go into the dynamic effects of upper air systems later in October.
As ht 500 Hts fall this weekend and more moisture, it will be sensibly cooler..
The next shoe to drop for the weekend will be an approaching short wave from the G of AK. This system is expected to pick up the cut off low and lift it into Ca Sunday for some clouds, possible showers, breeze and cooling. Temps in Mammoth should still be in the 60s
The Dweebs will be keeping a weary eye on a new developing Tropical Eastern Pac Storm Hilary. The GFS 12z Tuesday’s run showed that for the 28th, Hilery approaching Southern Baja. There is a slight chance that the moisture may be picked up and pulled NNwestward by an approaching short wave Trof from the Gulf of AK. If this does happen it is most likely to effect the desert regions of Southern Ca and AZ/NV. This timing at the moment is about the 1st of October. Again this is a long way out…but the Dweebs have to say that we are getting to the time of year, that is climatically more favorable for this sort of event.
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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.