Last weeks on again and off again thunder and showers has ended….a approaching cool front flushes remaining moisture out of area…..warmer next week as Ca gets a quick shot of height rises…..chances increase for precipitation next weekend as Hillery moisture flurts with approaching trough…..
Sunday September 25, 2011
Posted at 10:29 am by Howard
It’s a nice early fall day in Mammoth with light breezes and partly cloudy skies. Winds may gust to 40mph by late afternoon as a FROPA occurs during max heating….. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s Sunday with lows tonight well down into the 30s….some wind protected areas will freeze. Expect rapid height rises early next week under a building upper ridge to kick start the early week with a warm up. High temps will return to the low to mid 70s…. Lows in the 30s/40s. The warmest days will be Wednesday and Thursday.
Now for the fun stuff!!!!!!!!
The Dweebs have been following the tropical system Hillery for several days now on how it is being handled by the models. The differences are as usual are between the EC and the GFSX. The EC is drier.
This mornings new 12z GFS run has some short term features that give credence to the longer term. In the short term….The HT 500mb analysis had Hillery at 109east and about 18 North or “about” 500 miles due south of Cabo’s East Cape. There is a small narrow tropical/subtropical upper ridge that extends from the Mexican Main Land between the TS and the southern tip of Cabo, west to about 136W. Over the next 24 hours, as the current short wave swings through California, a short wave upper ridge follows and effectively pulls the subtropical upper ridge apart. Once split, a Coll forms (upper low) and becomes the dominant steering mechanism beginning Monday night as it changes Hillery’s current course from East to west to one of a more northerly one. The short wave leaving the Asian east coast tonight will be the one that may pick up the remains of Hillary Friday night drawing it northward over parts of California that weekend. The combination of the two systems and considering the cold air on the trof might bring the first good dusting to the high country, next Saturday and Sunday. As usual, we do not have all the models in agreement as of yet, so this is just an outlook and it remains to be seen later in the week, if the EC and GFS put it all together.
As the Dweebs mentioned earlier last week, there is good climo support this time of the year for such an event…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.