Cold Digging Upper Trof to Bring Mostly Light Amounts of Snowfall to the High country….Weather to Remain Cold Through the Weekend
Wednesday November 2, 2011
Posted at 6:33 pm by Howard
Yea its been a while….but the Dweebs are back in action and have taken a good look at this Winter like Trof. However, so far this Fall, it feels like more like a typical (weak) El Nino/La Nina year which typically allows for a later start to the big snows of the water year. If you look at most winters of the past. Thanksgiving has always been “Iffy” for good natural snow. That is one of the reasons why Mammoth Mt spent so much on their snow making system in which the town is grateful for. Is that the direction the rest of this month is headed? Stay tuned, as the cake in not quite finished yet!
The current Trof is a digger. The issue with it is that most of the energy is going to stay off shore and miss the mainland. It is headed into extreme Southern Ca and Northern Baja. The main dynamics weakens as it moves into the central sierra. The weather front will bring most of what we get from this system. Hope it holds together! At this time, best guess for snowfall is like 2 to 3 inches in town and possibly up to 4 to 6 inches over the upper elevations with 6 or 7 inches over the top. Once the energy turns the corner to the east, the Central Rockies should get the brunt this weekend.
Again….Today’s latest guidance shows a track both more off shore and the upper flow having a bit more southerly track rather than from the southwest, so orographically not favorable. As far as gradient winds, it will be windy but possibly not as windy as it looked yesterday for tomorrow as the winds will be more southerly or SS-Westerly.
The outlook for Friday is just cold and showery with little additional accumulation. Expect Saturday to be less windy in the morning, with increasing wind in the PM and a chance of snowfall that night into Sunday. It is too soon to guess where the bulls-eye will be Sunday. Either way it looks like a light snow producer.
All in all, we will get all the cold and wind of a late fall storm without a lot of snowfall. However, it will be cold and Mammoth Mt will be making a lot of snow for several days!!!!!!!!!
There is another storm for about the middle of next week. The GFS is progressive with 12z Wed run of the EC cutting the system off, off shore. (Cutoff Low)
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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.