Archive for November, 2011

The Mammoth Weather Forecast…..6 feet of Wind…..and a Few Inches of Snow!

It’s the classic NW Slider…leaving the pacific NW with the bulk of the precip and leaving Mammoth with the prospects for a few inches of snowfall Friday. The timing of the front looks around Noon for Southern Mono County and best snowfall potential is with and directly behind the front for early Friday afternoon.  How much???  A few inches at this point. An inch or two in town and possibly 2 to 4 inches over the crest.  The silver lining is that the system will leave a lot of cold air behind the front for some excellent snow making condition…..All day Saturday into Sunday. 

The next system is on track to bring So-Cal a shot of rainfall….most of which will fall Saturday night into Sunday. 

As has been advertised, the best opportunity of significant snowfall for the Mammoth is expected Thanksgiving Day.

That system still looks good…..for a foot or better…….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

One More Nice Day Today…Then Winds To Rapidly Pick-Up Thursday Night…..High Wind Watch Late Thursday Night Into Friday AM

The Weather will be mild again today with highs in the low to mid 50s in Mammoth. Lows in the 20s tonight. It will be a little cooler Thursday with more high clouds…….

The next weather system looks like a windy one as the upper jet core remains north of Mammoth and a critical layer is forecasted in the sounding at 650mb Friday morning with the best isentropic surface later in the AM.

Although the Dweebs have seen stronger wind potential coupled with better placement and strength of the upper jet, it still looks like winds could gust up to 60 or 70mph in some of the better down-sloping areas in the lee of the Sierra, Friday morning. As far as snowfall, in that this is a cold storm, you will get higher Snowfall ratio’s to H20. So 6 to 10 inches over the upper elevations is not unreasonable over the weekend. 3 to 6 inches in town.

It will be cold Saturday with highs in the low to mid 20’s at the village.

The next upstream system Sunday will dive south like others this fall effecting mainly So-Cal or Northern Baja. The precip from this system looks to effect mainly the coastal plane Sunday PM. Its effect will be pretty insignificant for Mammoth, other than possibly some east wind Sunday.  The Dweebs do not think that Sundays up-slope flow will have much moisture in it.

Next Weather system for Around Thanksgiving looks milder in temperature and wetter with more snowfall……

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)

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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Weather to Remain Mild in Mammoth Through Wednesday…..then Cold Stormy Pattern to Develop into the Weekend

Monday night update:

Well the models had to go one way or the other as far as precip for the weekend. The models have backed off from the southward push of the lower heights along the west coast in favor of sending energy eastward through the Rockies as upstream energy dives southeastward out of the Gulf of AK. This will leave us with a cold, showery and windy Friday. The next system splits and heads for Southern Ca or Northern Baja Saturday/Night…..Deja Vu?

At the moment…the snowfall outlook for the weekend 2 to 6 inches Friday/Saturday? Will update Wednesday.

Still Expecting a major storm Between Thanksgiving and the holiday weekend.

 

From Monday AM:

A northwest flow aloft will continue the next few days giving Mammoth some high clouds and excluding the upper elevations, pretty light breezes. High temps will average near 50 with lows near 30. 

Further out, there will be a change in the pattern to more of a cold and stormy one. Over time (6 to 10 days)….the westerlies will become much more consolidated as eventually….an extremely cold Arctic Vortex sets up in the northern Gulf of AK. This looks to be a powerhouse upper jet that will find its way into Ca around Thanksgiving. In the meantime…the tempo will slowly ramp up with gradual amplification of the westerlies toward the Central Pacific by this Thursday.  

Central Pacific Ridging develops by Thursday. A cold upper level trof carves out along the west coast Friday with the first cold front moving through Central Ca Friday.  Moderate snowfall is possible Friday PM.  This will bring the coldest weather of the year so far by Saturday. At the moment, the ECMWF has a more over water trajectory with this first system as compared to the GFS. So the GFS is drier and the EC is wetter. More often then not, a compromise solution results and so for the time being, a good guess for a about foot seems reasonable by Saturday morning. Once we get closer in time, the Dweebs will fine tune. Additionally, the models are advertizing some modified Arctic air into Ca by Saturday……so this will be an especially cold storm as well.

There are several other systems expected to impact California after this weekend with possibly another system Sunday night into Monday. Temps will remain much colder then normal next week with additionl snowfall.

“Longer Range Outlook”

Highlighted………The models are forecasting an extremely intense polar vortex to drop into the state of AK about the 22nd/23rd of November. If this should occur as indicated my several global models, (GFS-GEM)…..this will set the stage for a major snow event around the “Thanksgiving Holiday”  Stay tuned>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

The Dweeber…………………………….:-)

 

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.