Cutoff Low to Spin over Northern Baja Today then gets the Boot ENE Sunday Night…..Strato-Warming showing up at 10HPA over the next 10 Days…..
Friday December 16, 2011
Posted at 10:10 am by Howard
Well…..there was a dusting over night with some wrap around. The current closed low becomes totally cut off by Saturday morning from the westerlies. The upper low is currently connected by a Rex Block. That will keep Ca pretty chilly today with NE flow coming off the northern great basin. The source is Canadian air that is moving into our area today. The high temperature will be near 30 today in the communities of Mammoth and June.
By Saturday Am the Upper low will be totally cut off from the westerlies…This will allow the current gusty winds over the crest to be greatly diminished by morning. Temps will moderate and a bit of inversion will set in over the weekend. The next upstream kicker boots the cut off low out of Baja Sunday afternoon. The old cut-off will be located along the border of NM/Mex by Monday morning. The way the global models handle the next system for Tuesday is pretty much the same, in that they keep it progressive rather than to cut it off like the current low. Tuesday will see a resumption of NE flow with cooler temps and gusty NE flow over the crest.
Now…..The following short wave is being handled quite differently between the two. (This is for 23rd) While the ECMWF takes the next short wave on a similar track as an stronger inside slider Thursday the 22nd….the operational 12z GFS under cuts the upper ridge and brings the short wave into Ca from the west as a wetter system. The EC’s Ensembles just dampens it out from the west as the short wave moves toward the west coast. At this time, this will probably bring some cooling, some clouds and not much more. However if by chance the GFS is correct, we could get some showers. Then………………By Christmas Day, both Global Models builds in a pretty strong upper ridge, for a very nice holiday and strong temperature inversions.
As indicated in the past report…..the upper flow does seem to consolidate going into the last week of the year. In fact….the newest 12z gfs run shifts the west coast ridge inland by the last weekend of the year which allows a system that brings snowfall. However….that system at the moment is in a time frame of what is called fantasy land by weather folk….
Strato-Warming……The GFS hpa-10 shows Strato warming over the next 240 hours.
Strato-Warming has been known to bring Tropo cooling.
Could it be that a major pattern change will develop about or just after the New Year?
Stay Tuned………………..The Dweeber….
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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.