Archive for year 2011

Warm to Mild Weather to Continue For Mammoth Through the 27th…..

Just a few thoughts this morning…. The updated 10-18-11 report from the National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) shows La Nina intensifying later this year. The State of the Art version “CFS vs. 2”  CFS meaning “climate forecast system” is showing a trend of strengthening; see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/images3/nino34Mon.gif  in the 40 ensemble members with the data used in the “last 10 day period”. There has been some hype on the net recently using the data and graph from the “Experimental Version” CFS Vs 3 that shows a peak in La Nina more in the February-March time frame that is off the chart! The Dweebs feel that this data is skewed and is not buying into that scenario. NCEP is not even including that data in there latest public release. Take a look at an earliest 10 day run the E1 see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/images1/nino34Mon.gif and you can see quite a difference in the strength of the La Nina 3.4 region forecast from the NCEP even within the cfsv vs2.  The Dweebs feel that coming off such a strong La Nina last year, that was a bit stronger then moderate, the odds of another back to back La Nina that would be stronger yet in year 2 would be highly unlikely!

Meteorologically speaking….what the Dweebs will be waiting for is to see if similar high latitude blocking develops over/near Greenland, -NAO style and -AO, as that was a big key to last winters snowfall as well as a strong negitive QBO number.

At the moment….the SSTA field off the west coast continues to show differences as compared to last year at this time. SSTAs have warmed considerably off the west coast to as much as 1.5C above normal as compared to being well below normal this time last year. Also the trend is disturbing as this warm pool has slowly be strengthening the past two months. In winter, large areas of warmer than normal SSTAs are often times associated with higher heights aloft and so that would tend to weaken storms coming into California or split them. (Split Flow).

With all said and considering that La Nina was a lot stronger this time last year and that SSTAs along the west coast north to south were a lot colder, it may be that the real Winter weather will arrive later this year.

The good news is that according to the BoM, ( Australian Bureau of Meteorology) a positive *Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is evolving now and so the Atmospheric response to La Nina is beginning….


The Dweeber………………………….:-)


*A positive IOD represents warming anomalies to the west of equatorial Indian Ocean relative to the east. It is known to boost a concurrent Indian monsoon, now in the last phase.


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Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Some Upper Jet Enhanced Showers Cruzing Across the Northern Sierra this Morning…..Shower activity is well north of Mammoth….Weather to remain very nice through Tuesday low 70s….

Upper jet at 250mb peaks about 115knots and SW/NE emanating out of upper cutoff. It is is producing a few showers in the front left exit region, offshore the Bay Area. The showers are moving through mainly Alpine County well north of Mammoth. The upper jet is expected to weaken later today and so showers will become more isolated by then. The upper cut off is now getting the boot and will initially build up heights over Ca Monday and Tuesday before coming through as a weak open short wave Wednesday. No precip is expected from this system in the Mammoth area. Just partly cloudy skys and about 10 to 12 degrees of cooling. Wednesday. HT 500 mb heights will rise again above 582dm….into the following weekend, and beyond into the following week. So warmer then normal temps “over all” are expected through most of the rest of October.  The idea for an early Winter (October) is most-likely not going to happen.

Next change:

About the end of October, the fantasy charts continue to bring a pretty strong wave into the west coast. However so far, what the Dweebs see is that the western pacific Long Wave high still remains parked about 1000 miles west of the dateline. So,  “that” waves energy is destined to remain too far to the north to bring Mammoth much more then clouds, winds and cooling. At this time…..With MJO in phases 1 and 2 and with periods of splitting of short wave energy about 140 to 145 west,  the west coast long wave ridge will likely favor the far west insuring more beautiful Indian Summer weather….well into early November…..


The Dweeber………………………:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Indian Summer Weather to Continue for Quite a While…..Daytime Temps Some +5 to +10 above Normal….

Not much new to chat about….

Upper Anti-Cyclone off the Southern Ca/Northern Baja coast to prevail into Friday with general upper ridging continuing through the weekend. There is a weak subtropical low that will get absorbed by the upper flow and come through So-Cal Saturday bringing some high clouds to Mammoth. The upper cut off out at 140w connects well with the idea of rebuilding the upper ridge over the west coast for the 16th into the 18th….so above normal temps to continue well into the next week. 

A strong short wave approaching 160w on the night of the 16th should be deep enough to dislodge the upper cut off at 140W and lift it through Northern Ca/pacific northwest late on the 18th or 19th. That should bring some breeze, clouds and cooler weather to Mammoth later next week. 

The long wave upper ridge position still remains over the far west and so any approaching short wave should weaken as it moves through the west coast through the end of next week. Overall……warmer then normal temps should continue for the high country UFN……..


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)

————————————————-
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.