Short Wave Tempo Picking Up With Series Of NW Sliders Headed Our Way…..Pattern Change For Precipitation Still In the Cards For Early March…..
Wednesday February 22, 2012
Posted at 9:19 pm by Howard
Quick Update to reflect lower winds expected over the ridges for Saturday morning. Gusts have been revised downward to 90MPH then decreasing during the afternoon to 60MPH. Winds in town in the 30 to 40MPH range. Wind Advisories Hoisted for Mono County 1 Am to 10 AM.
Snow showers will occur Monday and Monday night now…not over the weekend.
Highs Saturday near 40
Lows in the teens.
Thursday Am Update:
Windy NW slider on its way for the high country Saturday with ridge top winds 120 to 135mph in the AM….decreasing in the afternoon. Some very light snow possible Saturday AM.
Next in Series of sliders expected Monday and another Tuesday.
Mammoth Highs over the weekend falling to the 30s and should stay that way through Mid Week.
Long range update:
CFS Air-Sea coupled model has pushed the above normal precip back to 2nd week of March. It may be correct as the MJO has definitely stalled out in early Phase Space 2. Once MJO begins to move again eastward, the Dweebs will have better visibility on when the Storm Door will open. Both the GFS and EC ensembles still consistent in strengthening the MJO and progressing it east into Phase Space 3. At that point we should flip to negative PNA. However, as long as the MJO remains stalled where it’s at, the PNA index would likely remain at least weakly positive.
With that said, it is still possible to get some energy south, down the coast for at least a small to medium system, during the first week of March. More later………………………………………The Dweeber…… 😯
Well…You would think that the Dweebs had back peddled on the idea of turning the pattern wet For March just because it has not been mentioned anything in the last few discussions…. On the contrary…were still on track! Even the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks from CPC has put normal precip into the Central Sierra during that time frame. I expect the 6 to 10 day to go above normal with their outlook within a week!
Got email today from one of my O’l favorite lead forecasters that has since retired from WSFO RENO. Yea know…old lead forecasters never die…..they just fade away to their favorite Golf Course or spend time doing Soaring Forecasts when the wave is right!
The propagation of energy from the western pacific is back in action tonight via Hovemuller theory as three significant surface waves spin up off the coast of Japan in the coming days. Energy from the first will be coming through Saturday in the form of a northwest slider. Mammoth might actually get a little light snow from it Friday night. With more short wave action following. The main message is for wind and cooling. Winds over the crest could reach 120 MPH Saturday AM.
The next Surface low spinning up with leading isobar crossing 140E occurs this Friday morning. The energy is forecasted to come through California Tuesday AM the 28th. The next shot of energy through California would be the 3rd. The GFS’s timing is quite a bit different so it will interesting to see how it all works out.
I think that we are finally on the right track now. The tempo is picking up with strengthening surface lows coming off Japan. Eventually, the upper ridge off the west coast will retrograde westward with more serious systems that will effect California later in the first week of March.
For the past few days, the MJO has stalled out in early Phase space 2. The flip in the PNA usually comes in Late Phase space 2 into 3. So the flip is taking longer. It was supposed to occur in late February. By the time MJO gets to 3…(if it does) A full latitude trough should be set up along the west coast….. Remember, the global models do not get the tropical forcing into the models until about 5 to 7 day ahead…..So at the moment the PNA is still Positive like it has been for quite awhile.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)
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Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.