Warm Weekend Shaping Up for the High Country with Highs near 70….A Few Showers or Thunderstorms possible….Next WX System Possible About Mid-week
Thursday April 19, 2012
Posted at 10:00 am by Howard
Near record High Temperatures are expected for Eastern California and Parts of Central Western Nevada Saturday and Sunday. This would include both Mono and Inyo County. Bishop high temperature records are in the low 90s this weekend. The forecast is for highs approaching 90 by Sunday. The earliest 90 on record for the Bishop area occurred on April 1st 1966. The record for this Saturday is 92 set back in 1950 and the record for this Sunday was 90 set back in 1949. The Dweebs feel that the Sunday record is in Jeopardy of either being tied or possibly broken.
For the Mammoth Area, expect high temps to reach as high as 70 degrees Saturday and Sunday. TSRW’s are a slight possibility both Friday PM and Saturday PM……As the latest guidance is showing an unstable air-mass continuing even into Saturday afternoon with the Thermal Trof/Surface convergence over/near the Sierra Friday into Saturday. This surface feature should shift back and forth between Western Ca and the Sierra Crest each day and night. By Sunday the area of surface convergence becomes less focused with a light Zephyr likely developing by Sunday PM. By Monday…..once again the Thermal trof will sharpen up over the great basin and west wind (Zephyr) will grow stronger Monday as the next up stream system moves toward 135w and continues toward the pacific NW. The bottom portion of the upper trof will split, and cut-off on the 23rd.
Last nights GFS/EC thinking was that the cut-off low would be well south of Mammoth more near either the northern or central Baja Coast, thus not be a factor in our weather mid-week. However….The new 12z Thursday run of the GFS has flipped back to yesterdays AM solution by taking the cutoff inland next Thursday over Southern Ca like yesterday’s mornings solution. This puts the chance of showers back in the Mammoth Area Wednesday PM and Thursday next week…..and out of the area by the opener.
More time is certainly needed to resolve that issue…..As well as the next upstream system for the fishing opener. The new 12zGFS has flipped back to yesterday’s solution in taking the weekend storm east through the pacific northwest leaving California mild and Dry, while the ECMWF is consistent in dropping the vigorous upper trof SE through Northern Ca as a chilly NW slider followed by several impulses that weekend giving the possibility of snow showers. That is certainly a colder scenario with a more unsettled weather pattern for that opener weekend.
Next Update Monday AM….
As always….the Dweebs keeping you up to date!
Reference Glossary of Weather Terms
Disclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.