Weak Subtropical Ridge Builds into California Today for a little Warming…..A bit stronger West Coast Troughing Expected Next Few Weeks….So the Far West Portion of the Monsoon will end for the Central and Northern Sierra……
Friday August 24, 2012
Posted at 9:22 am by Howard
Quick Update Monday AM:
No change in the current pattern Sensibly… Trofing off shore will eject west Tuesday night for a bump up in the SW flow aloft. So it will be a bit breezier Tuesday. The outlook for the week is for very dry conditions with slightly above seasonal highs. Expect is mid to upper 70s in Mammoth through the holiday. Night time lows in the upper 30 to low 40s. SW breezes to 25 MPH. No precipitation in the forecast for the next 7 days.
It may warm up a bit next week as models hint at a westward shift in the upper ridge.
Although a flat subtropical ridge is building into California today….the guidance is showing more troughing off shore over the coming weeks as we move through late Summer. Daytime highs now in the mid to upper 70s will a drift a bit lower later next week. As a result, there may even be some night time lows in the 30s in the drier air after mid-week. Needless to say, with a stronger southwest flow aloft, monsoon moisture will be shunted to the east next week, well south of the Central Sierra. Furthermore…..Longer range suggests that because the western periphery of the subtropical ridge is coming at us from the southwest…..the AZ Monsoon is pretty much over for the Central and Northern Sierra for the next week or two. By then, the Climo suggest more troughing anyway.
So…with the exception of a maverick closed low split off from an approaching west coast trof, drifting across the Sierra to the south of us, or moisture from a dying hurricane headed north…….Thunderstorms if any, will be very isolated over East Central Ca.
Daytime highs now in the upper 70s will drift lower next week and remain mostly in the Mid 70s then during the first week of September drift into the 60s for a time, as stronger troughing moves through California around September 4th.
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