One More Decent Day then Showtime begins for Mother Nature….Lots of Possibilities….from Atmospheric River over Northern Ca…..To Protracted Precipitation Event….
Tuesday November 27, 2012
Posted at 12:57 am by Howard
More western pacific TS phasing issues with new 12z GFS Run…..
Dweebs not happy with this particular run because how warm it will be.
Note: Snow levels and freezing levels are “not” the same!!
Overall still looking at two storms. The first rolls in Wednesday with “Freezing levels” about 8500 lowering to 7500 By Thursday AM. So snow levels will be below the level of town. IE a Plow for the plow guys by Friday AM
“Snowlevels” about 6.5K to 7K Wednesday then rising to 7500 to 8500 Thursday/NGT. QPF is .6 to 1.0 over the crest so some 3 to 6 inches is possible at the village with a foot+ at Main lodge by early Friday morning.
Freezing levels shoot up Friday afternoon with mainly rain/Snow mix at 8000ft. Then all rain in town Saturday afternoon through Sunday Morning as the freezing level in saturated air is at 10K. By Sunday afternoon the freezing levels come down along with the snow level. Snowfall accumulation increases again at 8000 ft beginning later in the afternoon and continues through Sunday night into Monday AM. 6 inches+ a possibility between late Sunday PM and Monday AM at the village.. 8050 ft
The crest will likely get 3 feet Plus of wet snow above 10,500 ft.
The snow will dry out late in the day Sunday into the night with falling temps with a foot+ additional between mid afternoon Sunday and Monday AM at the main lodge.
Next update this evening…..or sooner if warrented….
“AR” SEE FOLLOWING LINK FOR INFO…. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/atmrivers/
The Dweebs have been watching to see which direction the trend is going in the longer range models. We like what we see….. There is a little known feature coming to play in the upcoming change. It is Western Pacific,Tropical Storm 26W which will be named BOPHA. The tropical depression is now located at 4.5 N/156E. The storm will eventually become extra-tropical and really spin up the jet later next week. Now the concerns that the Dweebs have been having over the past several days may finally be put to rest! Why?
“The concern” The pattern in the means has been advertised as a HEMI 3 wave retrogressive one. Meaning that initially, the big mother low in the G of A would provide most of the dynamics to Northern Ca over the next 7 days as the Central Sierra benefited with mostly sierra cement above 9,000. This is due to the location of the upper center located near 140west. This is a position that would bring mostly high elevation snow at mostly above 8000 to 9000 feet. Thereafter, the upper low was forecasted to retrograde, and the west coast would ridge up next week. However, I believe that the models are picking up on Tropical System BOPHA about 350 miles north of the Equator and some 1800 mi west of the dateline. Although the track is not certain, it still becomes extra tropical about Monday night the 3rd and the heat from that system enters the westerlies. It appears that it destructively phases and allows the long wave pattern to progress instead of retrograde. So the cold upper Gulf of AK long wave eventually progresses east and opens up at the same time about the weekend of the 8th. However…..if by chance the tropical system’s timing is incorrect and it constructively phases, we may really get retrogression and that would put an end to our precip pretty quickly next week. Latest 700mb RH does show a quasi “AR” link for Friday over Northern Ca and Saturday for Central Ca. So a day or so of moderate to heavy precip into Northern then Central Ca seem in the cards. Will keep an eye on that for Friday into Saturday. Another AR hook up looks possible on Friday the 6th and again Tuesday the 11th. Of course those time frames are in a realm of what we call…………………..Fantasyland……
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………:-)