Archive for year 2012

“Night of Lights” Tonight at Canyon Lodge will be Nothing Short of Spectacular, as Snowfall Rates Decline After 4:00pm…..Snowfall Rates to pick up again after 10:00am Sunday…..

 

Still plenty of storm to go….. Mammoth Mountain recently reported 18 inches of new since early this morning…..and at the Village at Mammoth there is about a foot or so. Although the first wave stayed mainly to our north last night….the second and third wave will more than make up for it. The Dweebs are still expected a good 5 feet of fresh over the crest by Monday Morning. Make sure you folks get up to Canyon Lodge by 5:30 or 6:00pm Saturday evening for the “Night of Lights”. The Night of Lights is regarded as one of the best Fireworks Shows in California and probably the best anyware in the country above 8000 feet!  There will be food and Fun…for everyone. Even the weather is expected to cooperate, as this latest snowfall surge should mostly be through by 6:00PM. In fact, the back edge has already cleared San Fran, and is currently moving through the San Joaquin Valley. Although snowfall is still expected between 4:00pm this afternoon and 10:00Pm tonight….snowfall rates are expected to be greatly diminished by Fireworks Showtime at 6:45PM as compared to this afternoon.

The next in the series of systems within this storm will arrive about 10:00am Sunday morning.  Snowfall rates of 2 inches an hour will develop by early afternoon Sunday. And yet the last in the series with this cold upper trough will move through Sunday night into early Monday Am.  The Dweebs are still expecting a good 2 feet plus at the Village at Mammoth and about 5 feet over the Mammoth Crest by Monday at Sunrise.

The Blue Birds with be Chirpin by Monday Mid Morning……….

Outlook:

Christmas Eve is expected to be Fair and cold with any lingering shower activity to be over by Morning.  Christmas Day will begin with the Blue Birds chirpin. However, the next weather system is moving faster now and will begin to spread over running clouds into our skies by the afternoon, if not sooner. Although no snowfall is predicted at this time for Christmas Day, I have to say that the Dweebs can not rule out over-running light snowfall by Mid-Afternoon. This is a development that has not been talked about within the past 12 hours. However the Dweebs note that overrunning type snowfall is not always handled as well as snowfall with Cold fronts with strong UVM.  So the word is…..to open your gifts early and get up on the hill in the AM……ASAP!!

 

The Dweeber……………………….:-)

Storms a Creeper…However will be into Southern Mono by Late Today…..Winter Storm Warnings Hoisted for Travelers Tonight……..

As of 4:00pm Friday…..Slow progress is still being made by the cold front through Mono County.  It was snowing over Tioga Pass. So it will not be much longer before it gets here!

Deep Cold Upper vortex churns west of Washington state with frontal band currently moving through Northern California. It’s raining in the Bay Area with the active portion of the frontal band at this time from Red-bluff to Sacramento. Because the nature of the storm, the front will only make slow progress southward today.  Open cellular Cu has been developing southeastward from the center of the upper low, while plenty of moisture is currently diving SE toward the Base of the upper low from well north of Hawai. To the South, a strong subtropical jet emanating from south of Hawaii is spinning up toward Northern Baja, spreading plenty of high and mid levels clouds NE-ward from the tropics.

The weather picture for the weekend is highlighted by the fact that the main area of baroclinity remains or is stalled  over Mono County so that there will be very little break through out the storm. The first significant break comes about 10:00pm Saturday night through 10:00am Sunday Morning. The precip rates pick up again by Noon Sunday and then the Dump continues through about midnight Sunday night.  Precip rates diminish rapidly Early Monday AM…..

Good spill over for this storm means that areas like Crowley Lake may get between 1 and 2 feet by Sunday night and the Town of Mammoth and June Lake between 2 and 3 feet. Upper elevations are info 3 to as much as 6 feet over the crest.

Future storm Timing…(Subject to Change)

A some kind of a break is in store for Christmas Eve through Christmas Day before the next in the series hits Wednesday Afternoon….then into that Night. A break by Noon Thursday into Friday with snowfall increasing again by Friday night into Saturday

 

Expect high temps to range in the 20s and 30s this weekend in town with lows in the 20s then down into the Single digits Christmas Eve.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)

 

 

Winter Storm Warning Hoisted for Mono County for Late Friday Afternoon….Cold Upper Mother Low setting up for Series of Waves of Moisture into Southern Mono…..2 to 5 Feet expected by Monday AM……Longer Range Pattern Suggests Storm Track Shifting South With Time Hitting Southern Sierra Head on after New Years……..

 

The Dweebs have had plenty on their plates well ahead of their upcoming tradition holiday feast!  We keep looking for the classic NW Atlantic Block to develop forcing a strong -NAO to the ridge up the west coast +PNA fashion, but at this time it is no where in sight! One reason is that the hemispheric pattern is in a -AO and at least a 5 to 6 wave progressive pattern. So the high latitude blocks that would normally form in key areas for some reason are not setting up. Additionally….The cold arctic reservoir is over extreme Eastern Asia and again for some reason, mother natures likes it there.

This may continue the process of energizing the series of short wave coming off the Asian Continent across the pacific and eventually coming into our own backyard…later in the year as suggested by last night GFS run.  The pattern at the moment is full latitude blocked at about 168W, with the block building well into the Arctic. Possibly because of the very strong Asian Jet…the block gets undercut with time pinching off a cut off Upper High over the Bering Sea.  The block may reform again or……..??

Currently Pattern:

A deep upper low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will shift a series of systems into northern and central Ca through Monday AM.Of note there is a lot of Subtropical moisture coming north west of Hawaii that is expected to feed into the systems as they swing through the long wave and then into the central and west coast. As the strong westerlies busts through the block later this weekend the entire amped upper trof comes through Sunday night!  The heaviest snowfall with be as the main upper low comes through Later Sunday/NGT. Orographics are singing a tune of 3 to 5+ feet for the Mammoth area top to bottom by Monday AM.

Christmas Eve will include improving conditions with short wave ridging Christmas Day. Christmas Day up on the hill will sport crystal clear skies, a blinding sun, light winds and deep powder on the upper runs……

 

More later……………………………..The Dweeber………………………:-)