Showers and Thunder today and Thursday with a Cap to inhibit development Friday and Saturday with Hot Hot Temps!…..Thunderstorms to return Sunday as upper cut off ejects through Ca……Putting the AO/California Teleconnection to RIP……
Wednesday June 5, 2013
Posted at 9:50 am by Howard
Saturday Am update:
This will be Brief:
The high temp in bishop Saturday was 103……Tying the old record of 103 set back in 1955. Todays temp forecast is 105 that would break the all time record of 104 set back in 1955. For Mammoth… Highs will be in the mid 80s Isolated TSRWS will be with up today then increase a bit Sunday. As the upper low ejects through the Sierra Monday, Thunder storms a good bet anytime……even in the morning and night! The good news is that the heat breaks Monday with highs in the upper 60s! Temps will moderate back up into the low 70s next week with breezy weather mid week due to trofing. Night time lows will settle back into the 30s and 40s but it looks like we have seen the end of hard freeze weather for June. Possibly even low 30s…..!
Wednesday AM Update:
Once again showers and isolated thunderstorms occurred in Mammoth. Although Thunder was not heard, the Dweebs picked up .02 in the rain tip bucket.
No change is expected in the forecast today. The 500MB upper low located about 700 miles west of TJ, MX will continue to provide an upper divergence lower level convergence couplet for more isolated Showers and Thunder today and Thursday. Further Warming aloft on Friday should “Cap” the convection for just some afternoon clouds both Friday and Saturday. Heights and 850mb temps peak Saturday with record highs expected. The latest high temperature forecast for the USFS and Visitor Center for Saturday is 86……Some 18 degrees above normal.
Below is a clip of today’s almanac:
Recapping the winter of 2013:
For those that may remember the Great Ca. Winter of 2011…..the thought was that the -AO teleconnection was the dominant cause for California’s wet and snowy siege. For the Winter of 2013 the colder season has come to close and natures Northern hemispheric thermal anchor the (PV) has retreated to its Summer home, over or near the Pole. Lets take a look back at this winters AO teleconnection and remember about the amount of precipitation that fell in California. I mean any ware in California! As an example, for the amount of rainfall in LA (58%), 70% of normal for SFO. In order to find a normal years worth of rainfall you had to go close to the Oregon Boarder and find Eureka with 100% of normal. As the Dweeb’s indicated last Fall, the -AO teleconnection “is not” a predictor of above normal rain or snowfall in California as the relationship is “Non Linear”.
There are some scientists that have tried to correlate this -AO teleconnection to wet weather in California. There is no proof of this. As an example, take a look at the AO teleconnection which became very low in index at times this past winter/Spring. Although it provided for some nasty storms over the Midwest and New England, California had one of their driest winters ever! I mention this as I hope not to be reading in this coming fall blogs, about how the -AO will induce a wet California Winter. It is only one piece to the puzzle and has to be part of the larger picture with a lot more pieces! The Negative AO often times is associated with a -NAO with causes a deep trof over the east. Once Snow cover is set up, a feed back can occur which can perpetuate the west coast Ridge (+PNA) and East Coast Trof -NAO/-AO. In retrospect, if we were looking ahead and wanted a real teleconnection forecast for the Winter of 2012/13 for Ca, one would have had better luck pondering the QBO last Fall. The Quasi Biannual Oscillation, a variable directional stratospheric wind oscillation above the Equator, became neutral (Between -10 and +10) this past winter. THIS WAS FORCASTABLE because of its timeline. The screaming message is that high latitude blocking is most dominant over Eastern Canada to the Davis Straights during the transition going from a -QBO to Positive. Most likely that was the tail that Wagged the Dog along with other large scale SST anomalies over the Pacific and Atlantic.
Look at the past winters AO teleconnection and think about how Big California’s Winter Was! 😉