Changable Weather Pattern over the Next Week with some light rain possible Monday/Night then very warm second half of Next Week
Friday June 21, 2013
Posted at 9:23 am by Howard
Sunday AM Update:
Increasing clouds are expected today with gusty SW breezes this afternoon and evening to 30 MPH. The first of 3 surges of moisture is now into Northern California. This will be mostly high clouds for our local high country. No precipitation is expected in Mammoth today. Expect highs a little cooler today in the upper 60s.
The 2nd surge will move into our area mid to late morning Monday. That appears to be the best surge associated with the best Upper Jet support. The jet axis is more like Eureka, Ca….SE through Tahoe with Mammoth to the South. This means that Mammoth is on the southern fringe of the storm track. Nevertheless, we may get a .10 of an inch or so of rain. The freezing level is at 12,500 Monday…..well above all high elevation mountain passes. Monday noon through Monday night looks to be the best chance of some light rain in Mammoth…….Great for the Motocross Track! The upper jet lifts north Tuesday, so any shower activity will be mostly in the Morning…
The further outlook still looks very warm. A continental upper high builds NW from out of Old Mexico. High temps in Mammoth will climb well into the 80s by Friday and stay there through the Fourth of July and possibly through that following weekend. I will update later on any Thunderstorm pattern that may follow…..as these type of heat waves normally are followed by a good TSRW breakout when the heights begin to fall. In the meantime, enjoy the comfortable weather that you are experiencing as it will be uncomfortable next weekend through much of the following week. Bishop could still see high temps hitting 100 by this Wednesday, 105 to 106 next weekend and if heights get close to the Magic 600Dm with 500dm-1000dm thick in the low 590s as forecasted by the new 18Z GFS today….high temps may be in the 107 to 108 range early that following week. Either way…you folks in the Owens Valley need to make sure your Swamp Coolers are maintained and operational……Later this up coming week through the Forth of July!!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)
While today Friday looks pretty nice for the 1st day of Summer, there will be one last precip producing weather system from the Gulf of AK that may bring measurable precipitation to the Eastern Sierra, Sunday into Monday. Any Gulf of AK storm that brings precipitation to our area this late in June is unusual….but not unprecedented. This one is no exception as it has quite the moisture tap as it drags moisture from north of the Hawaiian islands into our area mainly Monday. By Tuesday it moves out with improving weather expected by the afternoon.
The Next big change in the pattern occurs about the middle of next week as the long wave trof off the pacific NW retrogrades and a strong Continental High establishes itself over the Great Basin and into intermountain west by next weekend. This is our warmest pattern here in the high country. And, being that it is occurring in late June, it is not likely to be accompanied by any Major Monsoon Flow to cool us off much. It is possible that Mammoth could hit 90 degrees by the end of next weekend with Bishop 105 to 110…depending upon exactly where the upper high sets up. The looks to be a protracted warm spell with highs of 100 beginning about next Thursday and continuing through the forth of July…. No doubt there will be Thunderstorms associated with this pattern on the back end>>>>>
More later on the high country heat wave that is ahead for us for later next week…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)