Cold Upper Low Now Exiting through Northern Mexico…Leaves some light snowfall in the Process…Gusty winds over the Crest….Cooler Temps……
Friday December 20, 2013
Posted at 5:58 am by Howard
Friday Update: official word 4 to 6 inches on Mammoth Mt….. storm total with snowmaking going on all day Friday and Saturday weather permitting….
Next update Tuesday AM…..
Mammoth received some light snowfall Thursday. Although it was at the lower end of what was hoped for, about 2 to 3 inches accumulated here near the Village at Mammoth. Mammoth Mountain probably received between 3 and 5 inches. However they will update a bit later this morning.
the upper flow over the weekend will be out of the north with the upper jet over Nevada. this is a cool dry pattern. the best that can be said about it is that it will remain cold enough for snow making every night and some in the daytime today Friday as well.
By Sunday the an upper ridge builds in for the west and we become inverted again early next week. It appears that although there may be a few small systems that will modulate winds and temperatures from time to time, it will remain dry through the end of the year according to the guidance. There is some suggestion by some of the guidance that a slight shift in the pattern will occur by years end. That a weak storm or two might slip through the mean ridge position or a slight retrogression in the long wave ridge position may occur in the first week of January. However, whatever change occurs, it will most likely not be significant as there are much less ensemble members that are showing it as compared to others that are just plain dry.
For you long rangers that have the need to know what the future may hold, the Climate Forecast System (CFS) has indicated the following. (I will add as a caveat, that this experimental at best and is not to be relied upon for planning purposes).
For Mammoth Lakes (QPF)
1. From the 22nd to the 27th of December (Dry)
2. From the 27th to January 1st (Dry)
3. From Between January 1st and the 3rd. Between ( .1 and .15)
4. From between the 1st and the 5th of Jan (.3)
5. Between the 5th and the 8th (.25)
6. Between the morning of the 6th and the morning of the 11th ( . 2 to .25)
7. Between the afternoon of the 8th and the afternoon of the 13th. (.35)
8. Between Jan, 13th and the 18th (1.2)
9. Afternoon of the 18th and the afternoon of the 23rd (1.3)
10. Afternoon of the 23rd to the afternoon of Jan 28TH (.75)
11. Afternoon of the 28th of Jan thru Feb 2nd. (.7)
Total for January (QPF) between about 4 inches ( This does not include the first few days of Feb.)
Again this is experiential and not to be used for planning purposes
The average snow to water ratio is about 10:1 here in Mammoth Lakes.
Based upon the CFS guidance we might think that the chances of significant snowfall might increase about the middle of January.
In that I do not have access to the ECMWF Monthly Precip I can not compare to the CFS. However, my access to the upper height pattern at 500MB FOR 30 days and the 500MB ENSEMBLES suggests that
the CFS is too Wet…
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)