Weak Tonopah Low to Spin Up later tonight for a slight chance of snow showers in the Early AM…..Best chance over the eastern slopes near Bishop…..Gusty North winds for the crest and Owens Valley Tonight and Tomarrow……Warmer this weekend for all areas then unsettled, cooler/ windy weather returning later next week…..
Tuesday March 11, 2014
Posted at 9:41 am by Howard
Longer Range updated below………………………Thursday..
Small upper low along the South Central CA/NV border is associated with some cold air advection, However, so far just some mid level cloudiness is occurring. It is certainly colder this AM with temps in the low 20s. Today highs at resort levels will remain in the mid to upper 30s. Expect another cold one tonight with lows in the teens and twenties. It will be windy over the sierra crest with a wind chill factor so if you will be skiing the top, ware face protection. However, lighter breezes will be over the lower slopes and light breezes in town out of the east.
Tomorrow will be a little warmer with lighter winds by the afternoon .
The Outlook is dry through the weekend with near record highs by Sunday as a strong upper ridge builds over the area. I am expecting a high of 60 in Mammoth Sunday and Monday and low 80s in Bishop. The record high for Sunday and Monday for Bishop is 84 set back in 2007. It may get close to that Sunday and Monday.
Both the GFS have ECMWF have diverged on the handling for the midweek system next week. The GFS still hangs on to enough energy to bring us a dusting of snow later Wednesday while the ECMWF gives us nothing as it dampens the system out and puts more emphasis on the following system going into that following weekend. It appears that there is support from the global models, the MJO if it progresses into phase 3 and the CFS for the stage to be set for a grand finale for the last 7 days of the month of March and the possibility of a few feet of snowfall……The CFS has the 1st week of April sort of wet as well.
Thursday AM Update for the Longer Range: 3/13/14
There has been quite a change in the longer range outlook for the remainder of March and April.
NCEP’s Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) 03.13.2014 00:00Z
The Model shows less emphasis on March for snowfall now and more for the month of April.
The model gives Mammoth for the rest of the month of March about an inch of QPF which might be considered about another foot of snowfall, while in the month of April, the QPF is 4.5 inches……Or up to about 4 feet. If this is true, this will be great for the Easter Vacation timeframe.
As a comment…..model reliability, because of the change of seasons, goes downhill pretty quickly from now on. This means that even in the CFS, there could be a lot of flip-flopping.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)
Models doing a lot of changes today will update in the AM.
After a quick weak shot of baroclinity yesterday morning, the upper air maps reveled a system bringing snow to the Northern Rockies and an increasing NE/SW surface gradient. A weak upper low developing near Tonopah tonight will support some clouds, some upslope flow along with strong gusty sierra crest winds and cooler temps today through tomorrow. Although there is always the possibility of some isolated show shower that could develop with this pattern. The ECMWF has some showers Early Wednesday for the Eastern Slopes of the sierra from Mammoth south to especially the eastern slopes near Bishop associated with the brief Tonopah Low. No measurable precipitation is expected for Mammoth, however, some may occur for the mountains around Aspendale and Lake Sabrina. The Owens Valley will have increasing north winds into Wednesday along with cooler temps.
Going into the weekend, strong height rises will occur Friday into Sunday creating above normal temps. Highs in Mammoth will reach the low 60s and Bishop into the upper 70s and low 80s, Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
Although the GFS has the next significant system splitting early next week…..I think that there is more support for a more consolidated NW flow and windier pattern, so am sticking with the EC for now. I like the fact that the MJO is progressive into Phase space 1 during this period.
So a series of NW sliders will bring unsettled weather early next week, with periods of winds and cooling. There is always the chance of some snow showers but this is typically a dry pattern. However by the end of next week, the upper pattern may become more active Sunday and into the following week as retrogression is noted and supported by the MJO into possibly phases 2 and 3. Stray Tuned!!……………………………:-)
Week 2 and Interseasonal:
A quick glance at the latest ECMWF Control and Ensembles, show the possibility of more unsettled weather returning following week. There is likely to be systems about the 17th to the 19th that will bring winds and cooling along with snow showers.
The MJO has strengthened further and the statistical models of the MJO is strong and progressive through phase spaces 1,2, and 3 giving support to the ECMWFs week 2 means in retrograding the long wave ridge “Week 2” for a more active weather pattern and bigger storms later in the month of March. SEE: http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/fcsts/pd.MW05.Last.gif
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-