Dry Weekend on Tap…Breezy in the PM with some afternoon clouds……Expect afternoon Cu build-ups next week with a few high based thunderstorms possible, Mainly East of Highway 395….
Friday May 30, 2014
Posted at 10:54 am by Howard
Sunday PM Update: The dominate upper feature over the far west is a strong and persistent upper subtropical high pressure system that is over NW Mexico that will shift west a bit over Central Baja next week. It will provide for above normal temperatures well into the new week. To the north, the westerlies have their own agenda governed by where the long wave upper ridging is upstream. In the meantime, a weak Trof off shore will allow a continuation of surface pressures to be higher from west to east and so the Mono Zephyr will range from light to moderate at times. The pattern is dry as a bone with little chance of any rain as the Dweebs see it. Although several small Vort maxes traverse the sierra, the afternoon zephyr will likely keep the Mono Convergence zone well to the east of Mammoth, more over the Whites where south winds blow up the Owens Valley and clash with the west afternoon wind. So expect periods of build ups here and there will little rain if at all. Longer Range: The climatology usually has the last Frost around Mammoth, Fathers day. Of course that date is not set in stone. However, I would expect one more meaningful long wave trof off shore with wind, cooling and even a chance of a few showers. This year, Father’s Day is early occurring on the 15th. The last frost is usually the 21st; so between the father’s day weekend and the following weekend, the weather may become a little unsettled. just a heads up that another cool down with winds will most likely occur before Summer sets in for good. Looking at the EC Ensembles, the ECMWF really is not all that aggressive with that idea at all. However, the GFS between the 15th and the end of Spring try’s to bring in a cool Great Basin upper low. So we all have some time to watch it. What ever it is, it’s not going to be a big deal. The time frame begins about the 11th, through the 22nd. ————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Weak low pressure trofing in the mid levels and aloft will continue to bring occasional high clouds along with light to moderate breezes the next 5 day. Temperatures will continue in the upper 60s during the afternoon with night-time lows in the 30s. An increase to the low 70s is likely by Sunday or Monday. The overall pattern shows by the Dweebs favorite models for the next week, looks to consist of an upper level trof axis along the west coast, with several vort centers that will migrate through the state of CA. One will come though Monday and another about Wednesday. Moisture is very limited and so the type of thunderstorms that may occur would be high based and diurnal. This will bring some threat of lighting fires to the Southern Sierra next week along with gusty winds Longer Range: Per week 2 and 3- CFS About the 3rd week of June… 1. A stronger low pressure trof may bring some light precipitation to the sierra. (Gusty Winds…Cooler temps then TSRWs possible during 3rd week) 2. With Monsoon season about 6 weeks away, some of the global models already showing the Sierra Madres of Old Mexico waking up by Mid June and a draw up of moisture into New Mexico by 3rd-4th week of June.