MJO over Phase Four to begin weakening or progressing Toward Phase 5….Robust Trof to shift East out of Area Tomarrow to Insure a warm weekend……Winds To begin to diminish Wednesday………July Fourth Holiday to be a Toasty One from an Interseasonal Perspective…..
Tuesday June 17, 2014
Posted at 9:51 am by Howard
This mornings freeze qualified climatically as the last freeze of the season. The timing of that was right on with Fathers Day usually the last freeze. So the Climatology was great!. The Dweebs do not expect any more freezes in Mammoth Lakes at the 8000 foot level until fall now. However, that does not mean that we are done with warming and cooling periods as well as windy periods. There is another moderate trof on the horizon for the last weekend of June that will have wind in store for the high country along with cooler temps…then a warm up through the 4th of July. July 4th should be a bit breezy but well into the 70s…..
At the moment, we are now in a rapid warning trend that will get us into the upper 60s today, then low 70s by Thursday. Mid 70s Friday and Saturday then close to 80 by Sunday into early next week.
A cool down with wind is expected the following Friday into that weekend.
Yes its been windy….And cooler than Normal…but the Dweebs did warn you of all that. The good news, is that a break in the wind and cool weather is coming up by Thursday. That break should continue through the weekend. When the MJO is in phase 4 this time of the year, the odds are good of pattern of wind and cool for the high country of the Sierra. The progression or weakening of that wave in that area of tropical forcing over the Western Pacific will allow the west coast trof to weaken. So warming with less wind is in our forecast for our region or the weekend.
Over the long-term, the dynamic MJO model strengthens somewhat the MJO again near this region or a little further east. Thus another trof…..however weaker will move toward the west coast next week bringing another spell of wind and cooling. However, the cooling and wind is not likely to be as strong as the current one. As we move toward the end of the month some real signs of Summer begin to take hold. At the moment, the Dweebs are expecting a very warm end of the month of June…..well into the 1st week of July. However, with that said, if a real El Nino is shaping up, it may not be long until weather patterns begin to couple with that equatorial warm water near the dateline. That may spell more wind eventually for our summer and not as persistently hot as during the past several summers.
Mammoth….today low 60s…then upper 60s Wednesday. Lows in the 30s tomorrow AM
Thursday through Sunday will be warm with highs in the low to mid 70s…..while lows will be in the 30s and 40s
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………………..:-)