Very Moist Unstable Air-Mass to remain over our area through Thursday with the likelyhood of heavy rain showers high accordingly……A slow drying process to begin Friday with Areal Coverage of Thunderstorms decreasing through Saturday then fair and dry Sunday and next week…..
Wednesday July 16, 2014
Posted at 10:11 am by Howard
With Dew Point in the low 50s….PWATs over an inch and favorable Kinematics, there is a high likelihood of Thunderstorms today and Thursday. Locally heavy rain is possible as well today and Thursday from Southern Mono County northward through Central Mono County and eastward to Esmeralda County. The National Weather service has issued a flash flood Watch for Mono County and the Sierra both today and Tomorrow From 12:00 noon to 9:00 pm. Campers, and outdoor sports enthusiast’s should keep in touch with local radio stations which will put out a warning when the NWS relays it to them. Low lying Stream’s, Arroyo’s and rock slides on Mountain Pass are particularly susceptible to heavy rain. Travelers should keep in touch with the National Weather Service via local radio stations in case Flash Flooding is observed and a warning is issued.
Deep Monsoon moisture will remain over Mono County through Thursday with the beginnings of a drying trend Friday. Storms over the next few days are capable of producing heavy rainfall. A strong Trof of low pressure will approach the Pacific Northwest Thursday into Friday. This is set up a drier flow from the Pacific, out of the SSW which eventually flushes all of the Monsoon moisture from our region by week’s end. However, for the immediate Mammoth Area we should be thunderstorms free by Saturday at the latest. Beginning Sunday and especially early next week will be quite breezy and dry. Highs temps will continue in the 70s with over night lows dropping into the 30s in some areas, because of the dryer air. The influence of this upper trof is likely to keep our area very dry through next weekend with Monsoon Moisture not making a real comeback until the end of the month.
Several smaller Kelvin Waves are moving east near the equator. Subsurface warming is taking place again from the eastern portions of the “western pacific” to the central pacific. Eventually, this warm subsurface water will begin to show up in the SSTA’s of the NINO 4 an 3.4 indices later this month with indications of further warming.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………………………………:-)