Deep Monsoon Moisture in Place with an active pattern continuing for afternoon and evening Thunderstorms…..It should be a bit drier Thursday and Especially Friday…..
Tuesday July 29, 2014
Posted at 4:45 pm by Howard
Extensive cloudiness has effectively shut down the convective process over the Mammoth area. And……unless we can get a hour or two of sunshine this afternoon, the odds of any major flooding type rains are pretty slim. Thus the NWS has canceled the flash flood watch for Mono County. So far we have picked up about a quarter of an inch of rain today. If tomorrow’s skies dawn sunny, we should have a few good afternoon thunderstorms before evening.
A significant drying trend still looks good Friday through the weekend……Monsoon IV may make a return next week…..
Total precipitation from yesterdays thunderstorms .26
This is from WSFO-RNO earlier this morning…….
Deep moisture will combine with better instability (Lifteds -3, HLTT>35, Surface Capes greater than 800 Jules per Kilogram) over the Sierra (Mono County) East-North Eastward into Esmeralda County, NV. This will also be the favored areas for additional forcing via upper level lift from a weak coupled jet this afternoon and then by a Vorticity center (impulse) that will push through late evening into Thursday AM. The combination of these features along with slow storm motions has prompted the National Weather Service to the issuance of a flash flood watch today for Mono County ENE into Nevada.
Comment: as indicated yesterday afternoon these dynamics are from the remains of X-Hurricane Hernan lifting through our area today/evening. the combination of deep moisture in place and strong atmospheric forcing aloft will create the opportunity for areas of very heavy rains via thunderstorms…..There may be nocturnal thunderstorms as well. Today and tonight will have the greatest potential for heavy rain this Summer……
The Weather Thursday and Friday looks drier with most storms east of highway 395…..Thereafter a nice weekend with the usual afternoon build ups but little rain if any….. High temps returning to the low 80s in Mammoth…..
The longer range into August still looks very active for more periods of Thunderstorms and Subtropical moisture……
Thunderstorms rocked the Mammoth area again today. Yesterday….heavy rains dumped anyware form 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch in less than an hour. There was less activity today……but nevertheless thunderstorms dampened the forest one more time….
Tomorrow Wednesday looks particularly interesting. X tropical storm Hernan has really weakend off the Baja coast and its remains will make a run for the South Central Coast of California by the late Wednesday AM. A Vorticity center is forecasted to lift over the Sierra of Mono county during the afternoon into a very moist air mass. So Wednesday may be the most activate day of the week with heavy rain and heavy run off potentially in the Mammoth area. Although trying to forecast the exact details of these types of storms are difficult at best. The odd are significant enough that the National Weather Service has hoisted a flash flood watch for tomorrow for Mono County. (Between 12:00 PM and 10:00PM Wednesday)
For those that may remember, it was not all that long ago some six years or so, that the Village at Mammoth got pretty wet when a storm opened up between Forest Trail and the Mammoth Scenic Loop near Minaret Blvd. It poured for several hours straight….
This is a similar situation with a vort coming in from the SSW into a very saturated air mass. Will that happen again??? Time will tell…..