High pressure aloft will build over the region next few days leading to warmer temps and light breezes…..Another weak impulse moves through Saturday Night and Sunday for a slight chance of showers…….A zonal flow develops mid week to wrap up the end of March and the beginning of April…
Wednesday March 25, 2015
Posted at 8:47 am by Howard
Record high temps were recorded Thursday over the Eastern Sierra for the date. Bishop tied the old high temperature record set back in 1960 with 81 degrees. Today Friday, the high temp record of 79 degrees was set back in 1986. The forecast is for 84 degrees which will shatter the old record. Saturday and Sundays’ record high was 81 set in 1986 and 1969 respectively. Both of those high temp records are in jeopardy at the Bishop Apt this weekend. By the way the first 90 ever recorded in Bishop occurred April 1st, 1966. that high temperature record is not in jeopardy. For Mammoth, any high temperatures between the 26th and 29th in March in the low to mid 60s are record highs..
With a record low snowpack for this time of the year in the high country and antecedent temperatures running between 10 and 15 degrees above normal, the weak system coming in late Saturday into Sunday should really destabilize the local air mass, especially above the elevated heat sources of the high country. Thus mid to late afternoon showers and even a thunderstorm is not out of the question between Saturday afternoon and Sunday evening…..The freezing level over the weekend is forecasted to be about 12,000 feet, so it would be rain showers in town and being that it is convective, snow showers or thunder snow on Mammoth Mountain, similar to earlier this week.
It looks breezy to windy Tuesday and especially Wednesday. It will be cooler as well. A moderate strength upper jet will affect our area in two parts. One jet-let comes in Tuesday morning and the stronger upper jet comes in with 1000mb/500mb/ Thickness packing. So its going to be quite windy Wednesday. As far as moisture goes, the guidance this morning indicates the air mass is especially dry. So the Dweebs do not expect any significant precipitation at this time. With that said, 500mb heights drop to between 570DM and 564dm with the upper flow from the west to east. The position of the upper jet and its axis is right through Mono County Wednesday. So….there will be orographic’s in play, and thus there may be a few showers Wednesday. Right now I would put it in the slight chance category of 10% to 20% chance.
The outlook for Easter Weekend at this time does show a weather system for that weekend. However, it is too soon to say if it will bring any snowfall or just wind….
A dust on the crust occurred yesterday as a weak disturbance moved across the sierra bringing some light showers late in the afternoon in town and snow showers on Mammoth Mt. Today’s guidance shows heights aloft increasing with an anti cyclone developing near or over Central CA Tomorrow. The upper ridge gets flattened by a system moving to our north Saturday, then a weak Vt center makes its way though the Sierra Saturday night or Sunday, bringing a chance of showers or even a thunderstorm. Daytime highs will climb about 12 degrees by Friday with highs in the mid 60s Friday into Saturday. It will be a bit cooler Sunday with more cloud cover.
Next week will bring breezy weather by mid-week and windy WX over the upper elevations as the flow over the Eastern Pacific goes zonal. This is due to the forecast of the upper jet sagging south into extreme Northern CA while Central CA remains on the anti cyclonic side of the upper jet. Although Daytime highs will average warmer than normal, high temps will cool mid week to the upper 50s…at least. Night time lows will continue in the 20s and 30s. There appears to be a significant pattern change going into Easter Weekend……It looks cooler and unsettled….Stay Tuned……..>>
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………..:-)