Change in Pattern Seen in 6 to 10 and 6 to 14 Outlooks to cooler and possibly stormy weather……
Saturday March 28, 2015
Posted at 3:27 pm by Howard
Water Vapor loop over Central CA shows clearly the donut hole of the VT max moving into the Southern Sierra with Cu being forced to its ENE.
Cumulus build ups this afternoon occurred as expected. However, still no echo’s seen on the radar at this time. However, there is still more daytime heating ahead…thus the slight chance of a shower or TSRW in the forecast is good through this evening.
As in my previous discussion yesterday. I wanted to highlight the MJO that is actually 1.5 Sigma (Deviations from normal) in strength. It has just crossed into phase space 2 where it will spend a good part of the new week ahead. The Dweebs expect a cooling trend next week with stronger winds…..
The MJO is expected to cross into Phase space 3 Easter Weekend. The models have been touting for a while the possibility of a Storm over the Eastern Holiday weekend. The fact that we have support now from a moderate MJO over the Indian Ocean gives further support to the week 2 outlook for storminess because of the flip in the PNA to negative. At the moment, although it is too soon to think about a major system in the forecast. The possibility exists today, in my week 2 outlook for next Easter Sunday and into that following week of a major storm cycle. This is expected to be a cold pattern as compared to what we have experienced the past 2 months.
The MJO is expected to weaken as it moves east over the Maritime Continent with the PNA flipping positive again Week 3 and into 4.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)
It appears that finally the Dweebs are seeing a change in the pattern probably due more to the strong MJO which makes a run for Phase Space 3 during the later part of the first week of April…. I say that as the 6 to 10 day is bullish on the change to below normal temps. Using the ECMWF and the statistical model, they have amplitude’s of at least Sigma 1 or greater in phase space 3. So, as the MJO moves off the coast of Africa through the Indian Ocean, a flip in the PNA to negative is likely to occur. Thus there is support from the MJO composites in April in Phase 3 for cooler than normal temps over the far west when the Sigma is equal to or greater than sigma 1. This occurs beginning anytime around Easter Sunday and well into the following week. There may be some snowfall as well, but that is just a guess……Not based upon any guidance.
I still can not help thinking about the strong underlying antecedent problem of all that anomalous warmth over the Eastern Pacific trying to keep the ridge in place through.
Another Strong Kelvin wave:
More importantly the strong KELVIN Wave is beginning to surface throughout the Equatorial Eastern Pacific.
Once again this is going to be the big tease for California Weather for the next Winter….as the warmth (SST) fills the Nino Basin later this Spring and Summer. No doubt in this Dweebs mind that there is at least moderate El Nino on the horizon later this Summer and into the Fall. This big question like last year will be…will there be carry through into the following winter. We probably will not know that until later next Fall. One thing should be noted; that the Nino Basin has a head start on the warmth, as there is currently an El Nino Advisory in play. Weak El Nino conditions are ongoing now…..
The current Kelvin Wave will give a hot-shot of warmth to an already warm sea surface. For the folks that own beach front property in Baja….Better keep your Hurricane insurance policies current!