Smoke and haze to continue the next few days as Rough Fire Rages…..Light easterly flow may not be enough to shift smoke to the west……Warmer than normal temps developing this week…
Monday September 7, 2015
Posted at 1:15 pm by Howard
As a trough of low pressure deepens north of Kauai, high pressure aloft will continue to build over California while some moisture spinning off Hurricane Linda has moved into the deserts of Southern CA. Light southerly mid level flow will spread smoke from the Rough Fire northward during the afternoons while during the nighttime, the smoke will lay down into the Valleys of Inyo County because of temperature inversions. Daytime highs will reach the low 80s the next several days in Mammoth with the nighttime lows near 50. The next change increases moisture into the Southern Mono county area Sunday and Monday for a slight chance of some showers or thunderstorms. Expect a cooling trend next week with troughing setting up along the west coast for drier, breezy and cooler weather, with the possibility that smoke from the rough fire will be suppressed well to the south of Mono County early to middle of next week.
The next chance of frontal type precipitation will not be until around the Autumnal Equinox……
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………….:-)
It looks very warm this week with unseasonable high temps for much of California. High temps will move into the 80s in Mammoth by Mid-Week. An upper high is building west from the desert southwest. However, not in the fashion that would import monsoon moisture into our area. There may be some tropical storm high level moisture move into the sierra from the SW, later this week. The far tropical eastern pacific is getting active again, possibly due to an atmospheric kelvin wave moving through to the south that maybe modulating tropical convection in that area……I am not absolutely sure…
Will keep an eye on the development of TS Marty later next week as he tracks north toward Baja. GFS week 2 Progs show a nasty storm with heavy rainfall and high category winds. He may cause problems for Cabo San Lucus as well. The Autumnal equinox is the 23rd this month. Climo-wise, there is usually a strong system that effects the far west or great basin around between the equinox and the end of Sept. (This is climatology…not a forecast….)
Lots of smoke coming out of the Rough Fire now. With little wind to flush it out, smoke will likely be a problem and will be more determined by the amount of smoke from the fire itself than anything else. I do know that there is a lot of back firing going on to gain more control on the fire. So temporarily, that may increase the smoke but in the long run shorten the fires life. The fire is now 31% contained with the total size approaching 100,000 acres now This is currently the largest fire in CA burning at the moment.
El Nino; Comments from the Australian GOV:
El Niño strengthens
The 2015 El Niño is now the strongest El Niño since 1997–98. The tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are fully coupled, with sea surface temperatures well above El Niño thresholds, consistently weak trade winds, and a strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index. Weekly tropical Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies (i.e. difference from normal) in the central Pacific are now at their highest values since 1997–98, though still remain more than half a degree below the peak observed during 1997–98.
Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate the tropical Pacific will continue to warm, with the largest anomalies occurring later in the year. Typically, El Niño peaks during the late austral spring or early summer, and weakens during late summer to autumn. The 2015 event has, so far, been following a normal El Niño life cycle.
As a side note, some folks wonder why a couple of degrees Celsius makes such a big difference in the oceans heat output. So let me put this into perspective! One thousand Million Giga Joules = 1 degree C x top 10 meters of ocean water (1000x1000KM)
Next update this Wednesday
Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)