Low pressure system approaching west coast will weaken and sheer as it moves through Wednesday and Thursday….light amounts of snowfall will occur over higher elevations Wednesday/Ngt ……..Much colder system may dig south over the Sierra this coming Monday….
Monday October 26, 2015
Posted at 5:33 pm by Howard
Brief update Monday AM: Full Update Later today….
- California Rivers center shows about 2.00 of QPF slated for our own Sierrra crest by Monday night. the break down is an inch of qpf between 4:00am Monday and 10:00am so that will be the heaviest period.
- .55 from 10:00am to 4.00pm It will be all snow near the village soon…
- Another .50 between this evening and Tuesday PM…
Overall this is a 6 to 12 inch storm for the town and 1 to 2 feet for Mammoth Mt
5:00PM Wednesday Update:
This is a quick update for the QPF for the cold storm Sunday night through Wednesday.
Steady Snowfall to begin Sunday night and will end mid Monday morning. Snow showers will continue through the day Monday. Snowfall will increase again Monday night, then if Euro model is correct, snow showery Tuesday through Wednesday night with light accumulation’s. Few lingering showers possible Thursday. Dry Friday through Saturday next week.
QPF snowfall totals via the European model will range from 12 to 18 inches over the upper elevations at and above 9K. Roughly 1/2 of that at the Village and half again of that 1/2 , at Highway 395 east of Mammoth. The storm is 4 to 5 days away and so amounts are subject to change.
Snow levels will fall to the Mono County Valley floors by Tuesday.. Highs in town Tuesday in the 30s with teens and 20s on Mammoth Mt.
Fabulous snow making conditions Monday through Thursday if the EURO is correct as the upper low lingers into Thursday…to the contrary, the GFS is more progressive.
As of late…those that are following the MJO know that there is a lot of amplification in the RIMM over the Western Indian Ocean. According to the CPC, they think that it is being supported by a Kelvin Wave traveling east through that area. They feel that it is highly unlikely that the MJO signal will remain strong or move as far east to the Maritime Continent.The El Nino base state has very strong upper subsidence over that large region north of Australia that makes up the Maritime Continent. However…..Just an FYI for the west coast of the CONUS. A strong MJO progressing east from south of India, between 70E and 95E may flip the PNA to negative over the eastern pacific. Additionally…looking at the MJO composites, in November, if a strong signal goes from Phase 1 then 2 to phase 3…the odds are pretty high for the PNA flip and thus cold wet weather for CA. Maybe this is what the new deterministic ECMWF is looking at…. (See Below)
Outlook for next week….
The new October 27th, 12Z Euro really dumps the cold air in here with 700MB temps dropping to -8C by Tuesday morning. This system is from the Gulf of AK….Taps a lot of cold air from AK and BC, Can. Then drops pretty much SSE over the top of us. There is some over water trajectory, but the main dynamics will be in the cold core low as it moves over the top of us.. QPF is suggestive of up to a foot this far out over the higher terrain but this system is cold enough to bring snowfall to most of Mono County above 6,000 ft. early next week. If by chance the storm digs back west a few hundred miles….then were looking at something different….
More later…..Lets light this Candle!
Dr. Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)
The weather system west of the US has an upper Low pretty much anchored in the Gulf of AK. The upper trof pivots negative tilt and sheers southeast into CA Wednesday. It is picking up quite a bit of subtropical moisture at this time. The guidance is in agreement in weakening the upper dynamics as it moves into California Wednesday. In the meantime, lots of mid and high level moisture from the remains of Olaf will move over California Tuesday into Early Wednesday. The Dweebs take, on the QPF will be a blend of the GFS and ECMWF. Amount look to be about .25 to as high as .50 over the upper elevations. The snow level will be pretty high, generally above 8500 feet. Cooler air following the trof will allow the freezing level to come down a little Thursday, after most of the precip is gone.
The high country will have it first real taste of cold weather with a cold digging Sierra Slider early next week. So far this next system is progged to have an over land trajectory. Thus, it should not be a major precip producer. But it looks to be mostly snow in the Town of Mammoth Monday and Tuesday. This is actually a good storm to get the snow making going on Mammoth Mt as temps at 700MB are currently progging between -6 and -7C, or around 20F degrees. The Dweebs will have a better idea on snowfall amounts Thursday or Friday…. Light to possibly moderate amounts are in the cards….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)